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The Week in Review
The week started carrying damage from the prior Friday's chip massacre — the Nasdaq had shed 4.18% on June 5 as Broadcom disappointed on AI guidance and a blowout May jobs report (+172,000 vs +80,000 expected) pushed yields higher. That pressure bled into early week. Then Wednesday's CPI print hit 4.2% year-over-year — the highest reading in three years — and overlapped with news of fresh U.S. strikes inside Iran. The Dow dropped 953 points and SPX traded down to around 7,267 intraday. It looked bad.
The turn came Thursday. Pakistan brokered a ceasefire proposal extension; Iran signaled it was open to it; crude fell 2% toward $85/barrel. Two strong sessions followed, and by Friday close all three major indexes were positive on the week.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed Friday at 7,431.46, up 47.72 points (+0.65%) from the prior Friday's 7,383.74. The 50-day moving average at 7,247 held as the structural floor during the week's worst selling. The YTD high at 7,609 is the target if the FOMC is dovish and a peace deal closes. The level to watch on the downside is 7,334 — a clean break below it opens 7,200, then 7,000.
Volatility (VIX)
VIX closed at 17.68, down 9.05% on the week. Complacency is creeping back in as peace deal optimism fades the geopolitical fear premium. But 17.68 is low enough that if a ceasefire collapses, or if Warsh surprises hawkish on Wednesday, the VIX move higher will be fast and the options market is not priced for it.
QQQ
QQQ closed at 716.31, up 11.25 points (+1.60%) from 705.06 the prior Friday. Tech underperformed small caps this week. The chip unwind from Broadcom's AI guidance miss has been the headwind — the Nasdaq peaked at 748.65 on the year and is now about 4.3% below that high.
IWM
IWM was the week's outperformer at 290.41, up 8.76 points (+3.11%) from 281.65. Small caps finally showed up in a meaningful way — IWM hit a 52-week high at 292.96 on Friday. The level to hold is the 281–282 range.
The Week Ahead
Bias: Neutral with hawkish risk skew.
FOMC rate decision Wednesday at 2pm ET is the single most important event. Kevin Warsh holds his first press conference as Fed Chair. The market is pricing a 98.5% hold at 3.50–3.75%, but Warsh's tone on inflation and rate-hike risk is what moves the tape. Retail sales and industrial production also drop Wednesday. Markets close Friday for Juneteenth. FedEx, Kroger, Accenture, and Darden all report Thursday — FDX is the key read on freight demand and Iran-war energy cost absorption.
Flyagonal Update
- Win rate: 91% (77 wins / 85 total trades)
- Average days in trade: 5.8
- Trades needing no adjustment: 68%
- Total return: 152.0% (capital basis: $5,000)
- Current win streak: 1
Three trades are currently open — two winners and one loser. The strategy continues to run with a low touch profile — 68% of trades closed without any mid-trade adjustment required.