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Prefer to watch? Here's this weekend's video update.
Markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth, so this week's action wraps at Thursday's close (June 18).
The Week in Review
The index high was built on a thin base. Mega-cap tech and semiconductors did the heavy lifting — Technology led all sectors at +4.4% — while the average stock barely moved; the equal-weight S&P was essentially flat. Two macro shifts framed the week: oil collapsed roughly 13% after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework to wind down the conflict, dragging Energy down 5.9%, and the Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50–3.75% while signaling a hawkish turn — officials now project rates ending 2026 higher than today, a reversal from March. The SpaceX mega-IPO capped the week, jumping about 19% on debut.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed at 7,500.58, up about 1.4% on the week and printing a new high. Price is sitting just above its 50-day moving average (~7,448) and 200-day (~7,467), which now stack up as the first support shelf around 7,450–7,470. Below that, 7,400 is the level to watch. With the two averages essentially on top of each other, price is balanced right at its key lines — the next decisive move sets the tone.
Volatility (VIX)
VIX closed at 16.40. There is no fear in this tape — volatility is calm and the trend is intact. That is constructive for the structure, but it also means there is little cushion priced in if next week's data surprises.
QQQ
QQQ ran from 721 to 740.62, up 2.67% — the clear leader on the week. This was the semiconductor and AI complex carrying the entire market. As long as that leadership holds, the index grinds higher even when breadth is weak.
IWM
IWM closed at 295.59, up just 0.90% — lagging both the S&P and the Nasdaq. Small caps continue to trail, which underlines the week's main caveat: participation is narrow. The broad market is leaning on a handful of names, not a rising tide.
The Week Ahead
Bias: Bullish, but with a clear caution flag on breadth.
Friday's May PCE is the headline — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge landing right on top of Warsh's freshly hawkish stance. On earnings, Micron reports Wednesday after the close (a direct read on AI memory demand), with FedEx Tuesday as the economic bellwether and Nike Thursday on the consumer.
Flyagonal Update
- Win rate: 90% (77 of 86 trades)
- Average days in trade: 5.9
- Trades needing no adjustment: 67%
- Cumulative return: 126.6% (capital basis: $5,000)
This covers closed trades from August 25, 2025 through June 18, 2026 — 86 trades. The equity curve has compounded steadily across that span, with the large majority of trades closing as wins and two-thirds requiring no mid-trade adjustment.
While these are live results, past performance does not guarantee results. Trading options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors.