Blog
Weekend Update & Market Outlook 10/12/25

Weekend Update & Market Outlook 10/12/25

October 10, 2025

Market Action For Last Week

  • SPY (S&P 500 ETF) — Fri 10/03 close: 669.21 → Fri 10/10 close: 653.02 | −16.19 pts (−2.42%). StockAnalysis
  • QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) — Fri 10/03 close: 603.18 → Fri 10/10 close: 589.50 | −13.68 pts (−2.27%). StockAnalysis
  • IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) — Fri 10/03 close: 245.83 → Fri 10/10 close: 237.79 | −8.04 pts (−3.27%). StockAnalysis

Context: Friday’s selloff followed new tariff threats that hit tech and small caps particularly hard. Financial Times+1

Upcoming Major Economic Reports and Potential Market Moving Events

Mon, Oct 13

  • Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day (U.S. equities open; some federal releases shifted). The Economic Times+1

Tue, Oct 14

  • Light on top-tier data; Fed routine statistical releases resume post-holiday. (Watch for shutdown-related timing changes.) Federal Reserve

Wed, Oct 15

Thu, Oct 16 (busy day)

Fri, Oct 17

Heads-up: Several agencies have warned of shutdown-driven delays; treat times as tentative and reconfirm day-of. Reuters

Upcoming Major Stock Earnings Reports

(Premarket vs. Post-market shown; focus on liquid/market-moving names. Dates are U.S. ET.)
(You can also cross-check the broader list on Investing.com’s calendar.) Investing.com

Mon, Oct 13

Tue, Oct 14

Wed, Oct 15

Thu, Oct 16

Fri, Oct 17

  • (Lighter slate among mega caps; watch late-week guidance from transports/financials.) Investors

30-day view: Neutral with a downside bias. Rationale: (1) Event risk is elevated (bank earnings this week; CPI on Oct 24), (2) Tariff headlines just spiked volatility and hit growth/small caps hardest, (3) shutdown-related data timing noisecomplicates macro read-throughs. Offsetting: positioning isn’t extreme and buy-the-dip flows can appear into late-Oct seasonality. Net: I’d keep risk tight, use reduced net-delta / shorter DTE income structures, and fade rips into resistance until CPI + first two weeks of earnings confirm margins and guidance. Financial Times+2Reuters+2

Action plan: tighten stops; favor market-neutral income (e.g., iron condors/BWBs) on SPX/QQQ with defined risk; wait for Thu 10/16 data and first-wave bank prints before expanding exposure.