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Market Action For Last Week
Below is how SPY, QQQ, and IWM performed from the prior Friday to last Friday:
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
• Close 7 days prior: 6,629.07 (index reference: S&P 500 closed at 6,629.07) AP News
• Last Friday close: 6,664.01 (index value) AP News
• Point change: +34.94
• Percent change: +0.53% - QQQ (Nasdaq‑100 ETF)
• Close 7 days prior: ~ 22,562.53 (derived: Nasdaq at ~22,562.53) AP News
• Last Friday close: 22,679.97 AP News
• Point change: +117.44
• Percent change: +0.52% - IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)
• Close 7 days prior: ~ 2,387.08 (inferred)
• Last Friday close: 2,452.17 AP News
• Point change: +65.09
• Percent change: +2.73%
Takeaway: All three major ETFs ended the week in positive territory, with the Russell 2000 (small‑cap) showing the strongest relative gain (~+2.7%). The overall market appears to have stabilized after recent volatility, supported by easing trade tensions and bank earnings. AP News+1
Upcoming Major Economic Reports and Potential Market Moving Events
Here’s a rough calendar of what to watch next week (Monday → Friday):
DayKey Economic / Market EventsMonday• U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for September (~10:00 a.m. ET) Scotiabank+1• Note: Many regular releases remain subject to delay due to the U.S. government shutdown. Reuters+1Tuesday• No major marquee release currently flagged for the U.S. (per available calendars) • Monitor speeches from Fed/regional Fed members for policy cuesWednesday• No major large‑scale scheduled headline release listed yet from primary calendars • Markets will watch for any surprise releases or data updates delayed from prior weeksThursday• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (subject to delayed release) • Consumer Confidence / Michigan Survey (final) if schedule intact • More Fed/regional bank communication may influence marketsFriday• U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September — key inflation print now delayed to Oct 24 due to shutdown. AP News+1• Other delayed releases: import/export price indexes, etc. • Markets will especially focus on data‑gaps and any commentary bridging the void
Risk/Watch‑Points:
- The ongoing government shutdown is delaying key data prints, creating a “data‑fog” environment and increasing reliance on corporate earnings and Fed commentary. Barron's+1
- An inflation surprise (either higher or lower) would move markets significantly given the lack of other macro signals.
- Trade tensions (especially U.S./China) and banking stress remain latent risks to sentiment.
Upcoming Major Stock Earnings Reports
Per the current earnings calendars and previews for the week of October 20, 2025:
DayNotable Earnings & TimingMonday• Netflix Inc. (NFLX) — expected ~Oct 20 (Pre‑market) Investing.com+1• General Motors Company (GM) (Tentative) Interactive Investor+1Tuesday• Intel Corporation (INTC) (After‑market) per calendar previews Interactive Investor• IBM (IBM) (After‑market) Interactive InvestorWednesday• No large marquee name flagged in the publicly referenced lists yet • Watch for whispers and updates throughout weekThursday• Tesla Inc. (TSLA) may be expected later in week though precise date may extend beyond this window; expect After‑market if scheduled Investors+1Friday• No major headline names explicitly listed for Friday in the accessible calendar excerpt • Earnings momentum continues to build with multiple names later in October
Actionable Note for Your Trading/Edu Role: This week’s earnings carry elevated importance given the macro data gap — corporate guidance, commentary, and surprises will likely move markets more than usual. Position sizing and risk management are key.
Summary: 30‑Day Outlook
Bias: I lean cautiously bullish for the next 30 days, with important caveats.
Why bullish:
- Market appears to have stabilized and responded positively to easing trade rhetoric and solid bank earnings.
- With inflation prints delayed, expectations for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may remain intact, which could support equities. Barron's+1
- With earnings season ramping, especially from large tech/corporate names, upside surprises could drive further gains.
Why caution remains:
- The data‑gap from the shutdown means we’re operating with limited macro visibility—a surprise inflation print or bank stress could trigger a sharp reversal.
- Valuations remain elevated in some sectors; strong earnings are needed to justify current levels. Seeking Alpha
- Technicals and market breadth may not yet fully support a broad‑based rally — reliance on a few large names increases risk of fragility.
Practical Summary / Action Plan:
- Maintain core equity exposure, but ensure you’re not overly concentrated or levered given the heightened risk environment.
- Use earnings events (particularly Netflix, Intel, Tesla, etc.) as tactical opportunities — both for upside setups and hedged strategies (e.g., straddles, protective puts).
- Monitor for macro surprises — have plan for quick adjustment if inflation prints or employment data break in an unexpected direction.
- Keep a close eye on small‑cap/ breadth indicators — if we start seeing cracks there, rotate to more defensive positions.
- As educator/alert‑service provider (Steve), highlight to your audience that this period demands disciplined risk management: stress scenarios, clearly defined stop‑losses, and no over‑promising of runaway rallies.
In short: the market has upside potential, but the margin for error is thin — execute with prudence rather than blind optimism.