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Market Action For Last Week
Below is how SPY, QQQ, and IWM fared from the prior Friday to last Friday:
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
- • Close 7 days prior: $663.70
- • Last Friday close: *~ $669.21*
- • Point change: +5.51
- • Percent change: +0.83%
- QQQ (Nasdaq‑100 ETF)
- • Close 7 days prior: ≈ $599.35
- • Last Friday close: not concretely in my sources
- • (Estimated slight gain or flat, consistent with modest strength in equities)
- IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)
- • Close 7 days prior: not directly found in sources
- • Last Friday close: not directly found in sources
- • (Generally small caps lagged or were weaker than large caps, per commentary about breadth)
Takeaway: The S&P (via SPY) showed modest gain, pushing to new highs even with noise around a government shutdown. Nasdaq (QQQ) appeared relatively stable or modestly positive. Small caps (IWM) had weaker relative footing, consistent with a risk‑off tilt or rotation toward larger, more stable names.
Despite macro and political noise (notably the U.S. government shutdown) equities held up, with breadth holding up better than many feared.
Upcoming Major Economic Reports and Potential Market Moving Events
Here’s a rough calendar of what to watch next week (Monday → Friday):
Monday
- Retail Sales (MoM) — a key consumer demand metric.
- Other commentary or regional Fed speeches (monitor).
Tuesday
- No major marquee releases flagged in current consensus sources.
- Fed/regional Fed speeches may influence expectations.
Wednesday
- Possible revisions to CPI / inflation or producer data depending on scheduling.
- Fed speakers / central bank commentary likely.
Thursday
- Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
- Consumer Confidence / Michigan Survey (final)
- More Fed communication / speeches.
Friday
- Personal Income & PCE Deflator (core & headline) — critical inflation measure for the Fed
- Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- Markets will assess the week and reposition ahead of weekend and potential data wrap.
⚠ Note: The ongoing U.S. government shutdown raises the risk of delayed or missing data releases, which could blur the normal cadence of economic signals.
30‑Day Market View & Bias
I lean cautiously bullish for the next 30 days, with caveats.
Why bullish tilt:
- Equity markets are showing resilience despite political / macro uncertainty (e.g. government shutdown).
- Rate cut expectations remain alive; if inflation (via PCE) comes in soft or benign, that could re-accelerate upside.
- Earnings surprises (especially from technology, growth, or export/FX beneficiaries) could provide catalysts.
Risks to watch (why caution):
- Inflation surprises or surprise hawkish commentary from the Fed could derail sentiment.
- Data shortfalls or delays (due to the shutdown) may complicate macro read.
- If small caps (IWM) weaken further, that may signal underlying breadth fatigue.
- Disappointing guidance in earnings could dampen momentum, even if headline numbers are OK.
Practical stance (actionable):
- Maintain moderate exposure to equities, favoring sectors that benefit from easing or stable rates (tech, growth, discretionary).
- Keep defensive or hedged positions ready in case inflation surprises.
- Use earnings events as trade catalysts rather than relying purely on macro.
- Watch breadth, small cap performance, and inflation prints closely — these will be key tellers.
In short: the upside is limited but present, provided macro and earnings don’t surprise harshly. I’m not expecting a blow-off rally, but a steady grind higher is plausible under a benign backdrop.