Weekend Update & Market Outlook 11/01/26

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The Week in Review

Alphabet lost about half a trillion dollars of market value on Thursday, the worst day in its history as a public company. On Friday Intel had its worst day since 1974, and the S&P 500 closed below 7,600 for the first time since mid-September.

SPX closed at 7,580.07, down 0.57%. It climbed to 7,743.98 by Wednesday, about 75 points from the 7,819 record close, then lost 164 points in two sessions. Friday's close is the lowest since September 16 and the first close below the 100-day average since early April. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.00% to 25,437.00, including a 2.86% drop on Friday, its worst day since June. The Russell 2000 rose 1.29% to 2,811.84 — its second straight up week.

VIX closed at 19.42, flat on the week, after spiking to 23.93 Friday afternoon. Brent crude settled at $117.64, its highest close since April 29.

Weekly Market Scorecard — Week Ending October 30, 2026

Other closes: VIX 19.42 (from 19.45), 10-year 4.93% (down from 5.00%), Brent crude $117.64 (from $116.72), WTI $104.12 (from $103.27), gold $3,898.90 (from $4,007.90), a 52-week low.

Alphabet Lost $500 Billion. Microsoft Didn't.

Microsoft and Alphabet reported Wednesday night, and both are spending heavily on AI data centers. The market judged them on one line of the statement: free cash flow.

Microsoft grew revenue 19% to $92.3 billion and Azure 48% to $33.2 billion, guided Azure to 49–50% growth next quarter, and produced $18.6 billion of free cash flow — down 27%, but positive. The stock finished Thursday about flat.

Alphabet missed on revenue and earnings, with search and YouTube advertising both short of estimates, and reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion on roughly $51 billion of quarterly capital spending. It fell 12.6% on Thursday, its worst day since going public in 2004.

Amazon followed Thursday night: sales up 12% to $201.9 billion, AWS up 39%, earnings of $1.89 against $1.96 expected, and trailing free cash flow of negative $42.4 billion. Then Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0–16.0 billion against roughly $17 billion expected. It fell 28.6% on Friday, and the semiconductor index fell 7.2% that day and 15.3% for October.

Meta taught the same lesson the week before. The market reads the growth first and the cash flow second, and right now it is paying for cash, not for spending.

The Fed Held. Two Members Wanted to Hike.

The Fed left its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both wanted a quarter-point hike — the first time since 1992 that a governor and a regional president dissented together. The statement upgraded the description of growth from “solid” to “strong.” Chair Warsh pushed back on the idea that the AI boom is insulated from rates: “Interest rates get in the cracks.”

Thursday's data didn't argue with him. Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% against about 3.2% expected, up from 2.2%. September PCE prices rose 0.5% for the month and 3.6% for the year; core PCE rose 0.3% and 3.1%, both in line. Real consumer spending was flat for the month. Futures ended the meeting pricing roughly an 82–85% chance of a hike on December 9.

The Money Moved Again. It Didn't Leave.

Health care rose 3.1% on the week, materials 2.8% and utilities 2.0%, while technology fell 2.0% and communication services 5.3%. Small caps rose for a second week. On Friday the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.79% against 1.82% for the cap-weighted index — the average stock held up far better than the giants.

Bonds rallied again. The 10-year yield fell to 4.93% from 5.00% and dropped about 36 basis points in October, even with Brent at its highest close since April. Oil up, yields down: the same defensive bid the bond market has shown for three weeks.

Gold did not get that bid. December gold gapped lower on Friday and settled at $3,898.90, a 52-week low, even as money left tech and crypto took a hit from a major exchange hack.

SPX / SPY

7,580.07, down 0.57%. The third push toward the 7,819 record close since early October stalled at 7,743.98 on Wednesday and was sold. Friday's close broke the 7,600 level that held through October and put the index below its 100-day average, near 7,615. Friday's intraday low was 7,527.67.

It is not yet a lower low. Friday's intraday low of 7,527.67 and the September 16 close of 7,551.81 both sit just above 7,500, and that is the level to watch this week. Resistance sits at 7,600–7,615, then the 50-day average near 7,697 and Wednesday's 7,744. Below 7,500, the 7,350 area comes into view, then around 7,300, where the 200-day average meets the July 29 close of 7,316.

Nasdaq / QQQ

25,437.00, down 2.00% on the week and about 7.8% below its October 6 record close of 27,599.79. It is below 26,000, the level it lost the week before, and it fell 5.3% in October, its worst month since March 2025. The semiconductor index closed below its 200-day average Friday. QQQ fell 3.47% that day.

Russell 2000 / IWM

2,811.84, up 1.29% for a second straight week. It reached 2,859.22 on Thursday, above the 2,800–2,830 resistance zone, then gave back 47 points Friday. Resistance is 2,830–2,860; support is the prior week's close near 2,776, then 2,721.

Volatility

VIX at 19.42, essentially unchanged on the week. It dipped to about 17.5 on Tuesday, then spiked to 23.93 Friday afternoon — above the 22.31 high from October 16 — before fading into the close. It is holding near 20, and option premium is meaningfully richer than it was in early October. Expected ranges are wide heading into an election, a jobs report and two of the market's largest earnings reports.

Next Week's Economic Calendar — November 2 to 6

Monday November 2 — ISM Manufacturing (Oct), 10:00 AM ET, forecast 54.7 against 54.5. Apple (AAPL) and Palantir report after the close.

Tuesday November 3 — Midterm elections. JOLTS job openings (Sep), 10:00 AM ET, forecast 7.11 million against 7.08 million. Factory orders. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports after the close.

Wednesday November 4 — ADP employment (Oct), 8:15 AM ET; ISM Services (Oct), 10:00 AM ET, forecast 54.9. Treasury quarterly refunding. Uber before the open; Qualcomm and Arm after the close.

Thursday November 5 — Weekly jobless claims and third-quarter productivity, 8:30 AM ET. Cleveland Fed President Hammack, one of this week's two dissenters, speaks at 8:50 AM.

Friday November 6 — October jobs report, 8:30 AM ET. Consensus is roughly 55,000 to 63,000 new jobs against 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 0.3%. Preliminary University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00 AM.

Key watch: Friday. The Fed is roughly 82–85% priced to hike on December 9, core PCE is 3.1%, and two officials already voted to hike. A payroll number well above consensus with wages at 0.3% removes most of the remaining doubt. A miss, with real spending already flat in September, reopens the case for waiting. It lands three days after the election and the same week AMD reports into a broken chip chart.

Beyond the week: October CPI arrives Tuesday, November 10.

30-Day Market Outlook

Overall bias: cautious, now with real technical damage. SPX broke 7,600 and its 100-day average on a Friday close, and the Nasdaq is nearly 8% off its record. It is not yet a lower low: the September 16 close of 7,551.81 still holds.

Macro narrative: The market has moved from asking whether AI works to charging it for cash. Meta and Alphabet, both with negative free cash flow, were punished; Microsoft, with positive cash flow, was spared; Intel's guidance took the whole chip group down 7% in a day. Underneath, money is rotating rather than leaving — into health care, materials, utilities and small caps. Meanwhile the Fed is one meeting from another hike, with two dissents for it this week, core PCE at 3.1% and Brent at $117, while the bond market keeps buying safety.

Primary risk: The chip and AI selloff broadens. The semiconductor index lost 15% in October and closed below its 200-day average, and Apple and AMD report Monday and Tuesday nights. A miss from either, with SPX already below 7,600, puts the 7,552 September low in play and then the 7,300 area.

Secondary risk: Friday's jobs report and oil. A strong payroll number with wages at 0.3% cements a December hike while Brent sits at its highest close since April. Add Tuesday's elections, and the week stacks three event risks onto a market that just lost a key level.

What would change the read: A close below 7,551.81 would be the first true lower low below the September low, and would turn this from a broken level into a broken trend. In the other direction, a quick reclaim of 7,600–7,615 followed by a close back above the 50-day near 7,700 — ideally with semiconductors back above their 200-day after AMD — would say Friday was a shakeout rather than a breakdown.

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