Weekend Update & Market Outlook 11/08/26

Prefer to watch? Here's this weekend's video update.

The Week in Review

On Thursday the S&P 500 had its worst day since the April 2025 tariff crash and closed at 7,353.73, below the September low that had held all fall. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since March 2020. It came one day after the market's best day in three months.

SPX finished the week at 7,376.86, down 2.68%. It rallied to 7,688.62 on Wednesday after the midterm elections, then lost 335 points on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.37% to 24,579.42 and is now in correction, about 11% below its record. The Russell 2000 fell 2.05% to 2,754.11, ending a two-week run of gains.

VIX closed at 25.49, up from 19.42, after jumping 70% on Thursday to 28.18. Brent crude fell almost $20 to $97.94 on bets that the election result speeds an end to the Iran war.

Weekly Market Scorecard — Week Ending November 6, 2026

Other closes: VIX 25.49 (from 19.42), 10-year 4.86% (from 4.93%), Brent crude $97.94 (from $117.64), WTI $90.54 (from $104.12), gold about $4,065 (from $3,898.90).

Best Day in Three Months, Then the Worst Since 2020

Democrats won both the House and the Senate on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market read divided government as less policy risk, and SPX added 120 points. Oil had its own collapse that day: Brent fell almost 9% after the White House tied the midterm losses to the Iran war.

Thursday turned the relief into a rout. Qualcomm opened down about 10% after its handset revenue fell 26%, and the selling spread through the whole AI supply chain: AMD fell 17.3%, Micron 17.5%, Broadcom 10.4% and Nvidia 9.3%. The semiconductor index fell 12.25%, and about $2.3 trillion of Nasdaq 100 value disappeared. In the S&P 500, decliners beat advancers 411 to 75.

The AI Trade Picked Up a Political Question Mark

Democrats won in Texas, Georgia and Ohio, where opposition to data-center construction has been growing, and one estimate puts about 45% of planned U.S. data-center capacity in states likely to restrict it. The new Congress doesn't convene until January, and any bill would still need the President's signature. The market priced the risk anyway.

Earnings didn't help. Apple and Palantir beat and fell. AMD beat on revenue, guided next quarter to about $17 billion against $16.3 billion expected, and still lost 17% on Thursday; its free cash flow fell to 4% of revenue. The theme of the last three weeks holds: the market is paying for cash, not for spending.

The Jobs Report Pulled the Other Way

October payrolls rose 165,000 against roughly 60,000 expected, above every one of the 79 forecasts in Bloomberg's survey. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, hourly earnings rose 0.4%, and August and September were revised up 84,000. December hike odds went from about 68% after Thursday's selloff back to roughly 77–79%. The Fed is close to a hike just as its leadership stocks are breaking.

SPX / SPY

7,376.86, down 203 points and 5.65% below the 7,818.9 record close. Last week's outlook said a close below 7,551.81 would turn a broken level into a broken trend. Thursday did that: it closed at 7,353.73, 198 points below the September low, after breaking 7,500 the same session.

The 200-day average sits near 7,323, right on the 7,300–7,316 area where the July 29 close sits, and Thursday's close came within about 30 points of it. Above, 7,500 is the first resistance, then the old September low at 7,552, which is now overhead, then 7,600–7,621, where the 100-day average sits.

Nasdaq / QQQ

24,579.42, down 3.37% and 10.9% below the October 6 record close of 27,599.79. The Composite is in correction. Thursday's 5.52% drop was its worst day since April 2025 and took it below the 200-day average near 25,094. QQQ closed Thursday at $647.05, down 6.49%, on record dollar volume. On QQQ, the 640 area is the line in the sand; a break there puts the 560s in view.

Russell 2000 / IWM

2,754.11, down 2.05% and still up 11% for the year, the best of the three. Wednesday's 2,856.95 tagged the top of the 2,830–2,860 resistance zone and failed there. Thursday's 2,729.89 held just above 2,721 support. Resistance is 2,776, then 2,812 and 2,857. On IWM, 270 is the line to watch.

Volatility

VIX at 25.49. It closed 16.61 on Wednesday as election hedges came off, jumped 69.7% to 28.18 on Thursday, its biggest one-day gain since December 2024 and its highest close since March, then eased Friday. Option premium is rich again.

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Next Week's Economic Calendar — November 9 to 13

Monday November 9 — Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey (afternoon). Constellation Energy reports before the open; Take-Two, The Trade Desk, Occidental and Rocket Lab after the close.

Tuesday November 10 — October CPI, 8:30 AM ET. September rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% for the year, with core up 0.3%. Early forecasts for October are about 0.3% for headline and 0.2–0.3% for core. There will be no 12-month rate this time, because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown.

Wednesday November 11 — Veterans Day. The bond market is closed; the stock market is open.

Thursday November 12 — Weekly jobless claims, 8:30 AM ET. Applied Materials and Cisco report after the close.

Friday November 13 — October PPI, 8:30 AM ET.

Key watch: Tuesday's CPI. With a December hike about 77–79% priced, a core reading of 0.3% or more effectively locks it in at the same moment the AI leadership is broken. A 0.2% core gives the Fed room to wait.

Beyond the week: October retail sales on November 17, and Nvidia reports the following week.

30-Day Market Outlook

Overall bias: defensive. The lower low happened. SPX broke the September low, the Nasdaq is in correction and below its 200-day, and VIX is in the mid-20s. SPX is still about 50 points above its own 200-day, so the long-term trend hasn't failed yet.

Macro narrative: The election repriced two things at once. Oil came down almost $20 on bets that the Iran war ends sooner, and the AI buildout, the trade that carried 2026, picked up a political question mark. Underneath, the economy isn't slowing: payrolls rose 165,000, wages 0.4%, and manufacturing output is the strongest since 2021. So the Fed is close to a December hike while its leadership stocks break.

Primary risk: A hot CPI on Tuesday. A firm core reading locks in a December hike on top of a broken AI trade, and puts the 200-day near 7,323 and the 7,300 area in play.

Secondary risk: The AI unwind spreads, or oil snaps back. Applied Materials reports Thursday and Nvidia the week after, and either can extend Thursday's damage. On oil, the drop priced in a peace that hasn't happened; tanker traffic through Hormuz fell to three ships on November 1.

What would change the read: A close back above 7,552, and then 7,600, would mean the September low was regained and Thursday was a failed breakdown. A close below 7,300 loses the 200-day and the July low together, and that would be a different market.

Educational content only, not financial advice. Options trading involves risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results.