Weekend Update & Market Outlook 11/16/25

November 15, 2025

(Week of Monday Nov 17 – Friday Nov 21, 2025 – U.S. focus, plus key global items that can hit U.S. risk sentiment)

Monday, Nov 17

U.S.:
- No major scheduled macro releases flagged on consolidated calendars (essentially a quiet data day).

Tuesday, Nov 18

U.S.:
- Producer Price Index (PPI), Oct (08:30 ET) – Key read on upstream inflation pressures.
- U.S. Import & Export Price Indexes, Oct (08:30 ET) – Inflation via trade channel.
- S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Flash, 15:45 ET) – Early look at factory activity.
- S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (Flash, 15:45 ET) – Snapshot of services demand & pricing.

Wednesday, Nov 19

Euro Area:
- EU CPI, Oct (11:00 CET) – Headline & core inflation; can move global yields and risk appetite.
U.S.:
- FOMC Minutes (20:00 ET) – Detailed look at the last Fed meeting; markets will be parsing for tone on future cuts and labor/inflation concerns.

Thursday, Nov 20

U.S.:
- Fed speakers – Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President), 07:45 CT – Opening remarks at a financial stability conference; any policy hints will be watched.
- Fed speakers – Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President), lunchtime fireside chat – Potential color on growth, inflation, and policy trajectory.
- Standard weekly & secondary BLS items (injury and state JOLTS reports) – not usually first-order market movers.

Friday, Nov 21

U.S.:
- S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (15:45 ET) – “Final”/updated read on manufacturing, watched for confirmation or reversal of Tuesday’s flash numbers.
- S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (15:45 ET) – Similar dynamic for services.

Bottom line: PPI, PMIs, and the FOMC minutes are the big scheduled macro catalysts.

(Key names only, week of Nov 17 – 21, 2025; times are U.S. Eastern)

Monday, Nov 17

XPeng (XPEV) – Premarket – Q3 results; EV demand and margins in China will be in focus.
Aramark (ARMK) – Premarket – Services / facilities management read-through on consumer and institutional spending.
JinkoSolar (JKS) – Premarket – Solar demand, pricing, and China policy implications for clean-energy names.
Trip.com Group (TCOM) – Post-market – Travel demand, especially China outbound/inbound trends.

Tuesday, Nov 18

Home Depot (HD) – Premarket (BMO) – Q3 FY25; key gauge of U.S. housing-related consumer and pro spending.
Medtronic (MDT) – Premarket (BMO) – Q2 FY26; large cap med-tech; procedure volumes and guidance can sway healthcare.
Baidu (BIDU) – Premarket – China tech / AI sentiment read-through.
Multiple mid-caps after the close (e.g., Dolby Labs (DLB), La-Z-Boy (LZB), SQM, etc.).

Wednesday, Nov 19

Lowe’s (LOW) – Premarket – Home improvement + housing turnover / remodeling signal.
Target (TGT) – Premarket – Big-box retail lens on discretionary vs staples demand.
TJX (TJX) – Premarket – Off-price retail / value shopping trends.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) – Post-market (AMC) – Cybersecurity demand and billings; often moves software/security complex.
Nvidia (NVDA) – Post-market (AMC) – The marquee report of the week; AI data-center demand, guidance, and supply commentary are major market catalysts.

Thursday, Nov 20

Walmart (WMT) – Premarket (BMO) – Critical read on the U.S. consumer, traffic, and “trade-down” behavior.
Other notable Premarket names: Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Jacobs (J), Warner Music (WMG), etc.
Post-market (AMC):
- Intuit (INTU) – Small-business and tax-software demand; good proxy for small-biz health.
- Ross Stores (ROST) – Off-price retail; lower-income consumer.
- Gap (GPS), Veeva (VEEV), Webull (BULL), Post (POST) and others.

Friday, Nov 21

BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) – Premarket – Club retailer; view on value-oriented bulk shopping.
Buckle (BKE) – Premarket – Apparel / mall traffic lens.

This is a heavier-than-normal week for “macro-sensitive” earnings: HD, LOW, TGT, WMT, NVDA, PANW all have potential to move indices and sectors.

Bias for the next 30 days: Cautiously bullish

Reasoning:

Price action / technicals
- SPY and QQQ are consolidating near all-time highs with only minor net damage this week despite elevated volatility and headline risk (shutdown/re-opening, Fed noise).
- The S&P 500 is still up mid-teens % YTD and holding above key support zones on the daily chart, which typically argues for dip-buying rather than a major top until we see a clear break of support.
- IWM’s underperformance is a yellow flag (risk appetite in small caps is weaker), but not yet a full-blown risk-off signal by itself.
Upcoming catalysts
- FOMC minutes + Fed speakers could nudge rate-cut expectations, but the Fed is already in “data-dependent and gradual” mode; barring a sharp hawkish surprise, this usually supports a grind-higher environment rather than a rug-pull.
- NVDA, WMT, HD, LOW, TGT, PANW make this an “earnings microcosm” of AI + consumer + housing + cybersecurity. If these mostly come in at or slightly above expectations (the base case embedded in previews), that should be enough to keep the broader uptrend intact.
Macro backdrop
- PPI and PMIs could increase short-term volatility, but consensus is for moderating but not collapsing growth with inflation still trending slowly lower—an environment that historically supports equities, especially large-cap growth.

How I’d frame it for trading over the next month:

I’d treat this as a bullish but choppy tape—ok to lean long index / large-cap exposure, but:
- Respect the small-cap weakness (be selective or hedged in IWM-type risk).
- Expect event-driven swings around Nov 18 PPI and Nov 19 NVDA + FOMC minutes, rather than a smooth grind.
So I’m not “all-in bull” and not bearish – I’d characterize it as moderately bullish with heightened event risk, favoring long exposure in SPY/QQQ and high-quality large caps, with tighter risk management around mid-week catalysts.

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