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Weekend Update & Market Outlook 11/23/25

Weekend Update & Market Outlook 11/23/25

November 22, 2025

Market Action For Last Week

Comparing Friday 11/21/25 to Friday 11/14/25 (or the nearest trading days) for major U.S. ETFs:

  • SPY (S&P 500 ETF): Closed ~ 671.93 on 11/14.   Closed ~ 659.03 on 11/21.   Point change: –12.90. Percent change: –12.90 / 671.93 ≈ –1.9%.
  • QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF): Closed ~ 587.15 (or ~590.07) on 11/21.   For the prior Friday (~11/14) I don’t have a clean number, but given 590 level recently. Point change: small negative. Percent change: likely –0.5% to –1%.
  • IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): Closed ~ 237.48 on 11/14.   Closed 235.60 on 11/21.   Point change: –1.88. Percent change: –1.88 / 237.48 ≈ –0.8%.

Summary: Small declines across the board last week, with the S&P-500 (via SPY) down ~1.9%, IWM down ~0.8%, and QQQ down marginally. The market pulled back modestly.

Upcoming Major Economic Reports and Potential Market-Moving Events

For the week ahead (holiday-shortened week 11/24 – 11/28/2025) based on available calendar intel:

  • Monday (11/24)
    • No major fresh data (markets more in holiday mode).
  • Tuesday (11/25)
    • Retail Sales for September (delayed due to shutdown) — key for consumer strength.  
    • Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI — inflation gauge.  
    • Case-Shiller Home Price Index & Pending Home Sales — housing sector.  
  • Wednesday (11/26)
    • Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims — labour market health.  
    • Durable Goods Orders, Chicago PMI — manufacturing snapshot.  
    • The Federal Reserve Beige Book may be released — central-bank insight.  
  • Thursday (11/27)
    • Market closed for U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Friday (11/28)
    • Markets typically close early (stock market early close).  
    • No major scheduled releases (holiday schedule).

These data points are elevated in importance given the backdrop of consumer stress, inflation concerns, and limited data flow.

Upcoming Major Stock Earnings Reports

For the week ahead, key corporate earnings (tentative) include:

  • Monday (11/24)
    • Zoom Communications (ZM) — after the close (AMC).  
    • Agilent Technologies (A) — after the close.  
  • Tuesday (11/25)
    • Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) — before market open (PMO).  
    • NIO Inc. (NIO) — before market open.  
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) — after market close.  
  • Wednesday (11/26)
    • Deere & Co. (DE) — before market open.  
    • Salesforce Inc. (CRM) — after market close.  
    • Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) — after market close.  
  • Thursday (11/27)
    • DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) — after market close.  
  • Friday (11/28)
    • Likely light given holiday early close; no major mega-cap names well-publicised.

My Outlook for the Next 30 Days

I am slightly cautious / neutral over the next 30 days rather than outright bullish. Here’s why:

  • The market last week showed modest losses — not a crash, but the tone is softening (especially small-caps under‐performing).
  • We have a holiday‐shortened week ahead, which tends to reduce liquidity, increase potential for volatility, and blur data interpretation.
  • Key economic data on consumer spending, inflation and labour will matter significantly. If these come in weak or worse than expected, they could trigger negative sentiment.
  • On the corporate earnings front, there are some decent names reporting — but nothing yet that suggests broad breakout potential. If disappointments occur, the market could drift lower.
  • From a technical perspective, the S&P is pulling back from its recent highs and risk of a deeper consolidation or correction is elevated.

So, for trading/income strategies: I would lean toward setups that allow for sideways to mildly down movement (i.e., trades that profit from consolidation or slight decline) rather than full throttle bullish bets. Keep exposure moderate, watch for breakout catalysts but also be prepared for range‐bound or choppier action.