Weekly Market Report — March 14, 2026

📉 SECTION 1 — WEEKLY MARKET SCORECARD

TickerPrior Friday Close (3/6)This Friday Close (3/13)Point Change% ChangeSPX6,740.026,632.19−107.83−1.60% ▼ DOWNQQQ~$604.60$593.72−$10.88−1.80% ▼ DOWNIWM$250.96$246.59−$4.37−1.74% ▼ DOWN

The S&P 500 posted its third consecutive weekly loss, falling 1.6% and closing at its lowest level since mid-December. The selloff was driven by surging crude oil prices — WTI ended the week near $99/barrel — as the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to rattle energy markets and stoke stagflation fears. Weak economic data compounded the pressure: GDP was revised down to 0.7%, the February jobs report showed a −92K nonfarm payrolls decline, and the ISM prices-paid index exploded to 70.5. All three major indices finished the week in the red, with the S&P 500 now sitting 5% below its January all-time high of 7,002.

📅 SECTION 2 — NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR

📌 Monday, March 16: Empire State Manufacturing Index — Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production — NAHB Housing Market Index. NVIDIA GTC Conference begins.

📌 Tuesday, March 17: Building Permits (Feb) — Housing Starts (Feb) — 🔥 FOMC Meeting begins (Day 1)

📌 Wednesday, March 18: 🔥🔥 FOMC Rate Decision & Economic Projections (2:00 PM ET) — Powell Press Conference (2:30 PM ET) — Producer Price Index / PPI (Feb) — Bank of Canada Rate Decision

📌 Thursday, March 19: Initial Jobless Claims — 🔥 ECB Rate Decision — Bank of England Rate Decision — Bank of Japan Rate Decision — Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

📌 Friday, March 20: No major U.S. economic reports — 🔥 Quad Witching (options/futures expiration) — European Council Summit continues

Key watch: The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is the week's defining event. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, but the updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and Powell's press conference will be dissected for any shift in the rate path. With stagflation pressures mounting from the oil spike, Powell faces the impossible balancing act — acknowledge inflation risk without signaling rate hikes that would crush a weakening labor market. The probability of a June rate cut has collapsed from 56% to 23% this week. Five central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB) in the same week guarantees elevated volatility.

💰 SECTION 3 — MAJOR EARNINGS THIS WEEK

📌 Monday, March 16: No notable earnings.

📌 Tuesday, March 17: Oklo (OKLO) — After market. Nuclear energy play drawing attention amid AI power demand. EPS estimate: −$0.17.

📌 Wednesday, March 18: 🔥 Micron Technology (MU) — After market. Fiscal Q2 results. EPS estimate: $8.60 (+451% YoY) on revenue of $19.1B (+137% YoY). DRAM/NAND pricing tracking above expectations. Susquehanna raised price target to $525 from $345. — General Mills (GIS) — Before market. — Williams-Sonoma (WSM) — After market.

📌 Thursday, March 19: Nike (NKE) — After market. — FedEx (FDX) — After market. — Accenture (ACN) — Before market. EPS estimate: $3.74 on revenue of $18.5B. — Darden Restaurants (DRI) — Before market. EPS estimate: $2.11 on revenue of $3.1B. — Cintas (CTAS) — Before market. — KB Home (KBH) — After market. — Heico (HEI) — Before market.

📌 Friday, March 20: No notable earnings. Quad Witching day.

Key watch: Micron on Wednesday is the marquee report. With AI-driven semiconductor demand still surging and average selling prices well above expectations, MU's results and guidance will set the tone for the entire chip sector. FedEx on Thursday offers a critical read on the real economy and logistics demand amid rising energy costs.

🔮 SECTION 4 — 30-DAY MARKET OUTLOOK

⚠️ Bearish

The S&P 500 is trading below both its 50-day moving average (6,746) and its 200-day moving average (6,851) — a technical configuration that hasn't been in play since the April 2025 selloff. The three-week losing streak has pushed the index 5% off the January high, and the VIX closing at 27.29 reflects a market pricing in continued uncertainty. The macro picture has deteriorated meaningfully: GDP revised to 0.7%, payrolls swinging negative, and crude oil near $100/barrel creates a textbook stagflation backdrop that limits the Fed's room to act. The FOMC is boxed in — inflation pressures from energy make cutting impossible, while a weakening labor market makes hiking unthinkable.

The forward calendar offers little relief. Five central bank decisions next week will keep volatility elevated, and quad witching on Friday adds a mechanical catalyst for outsized moves. Even bullish catalysts like Micron's expected blowout earnings may not be enough to reverse the macro headwinds. S&P 500 concentration risk is also historically elevated, with the top holdings representing ~45% of the index — meaning any rotation out of mega-cap tech could accelerate losses.

Primary risk to thesis: A surprise ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran conflict would immediately collapse oil prices, ease inflation fears, and likely trigger a violent snapback rally. The speed of any reversal would catch shorts offsides and could reclaim the 50-day MA within days. Absent that, the path of least resistance remains lower toward the 6,400–6,500 zone over the next 30 days.

Report generated March 14, 2026. Data sourced from FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Investing.com, Newsquawk, Kiplinger, and MQL5.

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