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Weekly Market Report
Week Ending: Friday, March 20, 2026
Prepared: Sunday, March 22, 2026
📉 SECTION 1 — WEEKLY MARKET SCORECARD
TickerPrior Friday Close (3/13)This Friday Close (3/20)Point Change% Change
SPX6,672.626,506.48-166.14-2.49%▼ DOWN
QQQ$593.72$582.06-$11.66-1.96%▼ DOWNI
WM$246.59$242.22-$4.37-1.77%▼ DOWN
The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive weekly loss, dropping 2.5% and closing at its lowest level in over six months — now 6.77% below its January 27 all-time high. Escalating Middle East tensions drove the sell-off, with Israel striking Iran's South Pars gas field and Iran retaliating against energy infrastructure across the region, sending oil prices surging and rattling risk sentiment. Rate cut expectations continued to deteriorate, with futures markets now pricing no Fed cuts until mid-2027, adding further pressure to equities across the board.
📅 SECTION 2 — NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR (March 23–27)
📌 Monday, March 23: Construction Spending
📌 Tuesday, March 24: S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Flash Services PMI, New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index
📌 Wednesday, March 25: 🔥 Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Import/Export Prices, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
📌 Thursday, March 26: Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories
📌 Friday, March 27: 🔥🔥 GDP (3rd Estimate — Q4 2025), 🔥🔥 PCE Price Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), Personal Income, Personal Spending, 🔥 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final)
Key watch: Friday is the heavy hitter — the Q4 GDP final read alongside the February PCE inflation print will set the tone heading into April. With rate cut expectations already pushed out to 2027, a hot PCE number could further pressure equities, while a soft read might provide the first relief rally catalyst in weeks. The Flash PMIs on Tuesday will also be critical as the first real-time gauge of economic activity since the Israel-Iran conflict escalated.
💰 SECTION 3 — MAJOR EARNINGS THIS WEEK (March 23–27)
📌 Monday, March 23: No notable earnings.
📌 Tuesday, March 24: KB Home (KBH) — After market; GameStop (GME) — After market
📌 Wednesday, March 25: Cintas (CTAS) — Before market; Chewy (CHWY) — After market
📌 Thursday, March 26: 🔥 Lululemon Athletica (LULU) — After market
📌 Friday, March 27: No notable earnings.
Key watch: Lululemon on Thursday is the most market-relevant report of the week. As a bellwether for the premium consumer, LULU's guidance will signal whether higher-income households are pulling back amid geopolitical uncertainty and elevated rates. KB Home on Tuesday also provides a read on the housing market under current mortgage rate conditions.
🔮 SECTION 4 — 30-DAY MARKET OUTLOOK
⚠️ Neutral-to-Bearish
The S&P 500 at 6,506 is now firmly below its 50-day moving average (~6,656) and approaching its 200-day moving average (~6,593). Four straight weeks of losses have pushed the index into oversold territory with an RSI near 42, but oversold doesn't mean a bottom is in. The VIX closed the week around 24–27, elevated but not at panic levels — suggesting the market is pricing in sustained uncertainty rather than a capitulation event.
The macro backdrop is deteriorating on multiple fronts. The Israel-Iran conflict has moved beyond shipping lane disruptions into direct attacks on production infrastructure, creating an oil supply shock that could take months to repair. Meanwhile, the Fed's rate path has shifted dramatically — markets now see no rate cuts this year, with the first cut not expected until mid-2027. This repricing has removed a key pillar of bullish sentiment. Upcoming PCE data on Friday and Flash PMIs on Tuesday will either confirm or challenge this bearish repricing.
Primary risk to this thesis: A diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire in the Middle East would immediately deflate the energy premium, likely triggering a sharp technical rally off oversold conditions back toward the 50-day MA. A soft PCE print combined with de-escalation could flip sentiment quickly — the market is coiled for a relief bounce if the catalysts materialize. Absent that, the path of least resistance remains lower, with the 200-day moving average around 6,593 as the next key support and 6,400 as the line in the sand below that.