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📊 OIA WEEKEND MARKET REPORT — Saturday, March 7, 2026
SECTION 1 — WEEKLY MARKET SCORECARD
Here's how the three major benchmarks performed week over week:
TickerPrior Friday (Feb 28)This Friday (Mar 6)Point Change% ChangeSPX~6,9086,740▼ -168▼ -2.43%QQQ~$615$599.75▼ -15.25▼ -2.48%IWM~$263$250.89▼ -12.11▼ -4.60%
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell roughly 1.4% on Friday alone, with the Russell 2000 leading losses, as a deeply disappointing February jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 — sharply missing expectations of 55,000 jobs added — and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Yahoo Finance Oil surged past $90/barrel on Middle East tensions, adding to the risk-off tone across the week. The VIX spiked 24% on Friday alone, closing at 29.49 Yahoo Finance — an elevated and meaningful level for options traders.
SECTION 2 — NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR (March 9–13)
This is a heavy week for macro data. Multiple potential market-movers are clustered in the back half:
- Monday, March 9: No major economic reports. Quiet open.
- Tuesday, March 10: NFIB Small Business Index (February) — 6:00 a.m. ET; Existing Home Sales (February) — 10:00 a.m. ET
- Wednesday, March 11: CPI — Consumer Price Index for February — 8:30 a.m. ET (highest impact report of the week)
- Thursday, March 12: Housing Starts (January) — 8:30 a.m. ET; Initial Jobless Claims — 8:30 a.m. ET
- Friday, March 13: GDP Second Preliminary (Q4) — 8:30 a.m. ET; Personal Consumption Expenditures/PCE (January) — 8:30 a.m. ET; Personal Income (January) — 8:30 a.m. ET; JOLTS Job Openings (January) — 10:00 a.m. ET; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (March) — 10:00 a.m. ET CNBC
Key watch: Wednesday's CPI is the week's linchpin. The February CPI is scheduled for release Wednesday, March 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics With oil now above $90, there is a real risk the print comes in hot, which would complicate the Fed's already-difficult position on rate cuts. Friday's PCE and GDP are also major — they will shape the stagflation narrative heading into the March FOMC meeting.
SECTION 3 — MAJOR EARNINGS THIS WEEK (March 9–13)
- Monday, March 9: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — After market
- Tuesday, March 10: Oracle (ORCL) — After market
- Wednesday, March 11: Campbell's Co. (CPB) — Before market
- Thursday, March 12: Dollar General (DG) — Before market; Lennar (LEN) — Before market; Adobe (ADBE) — After market; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — After market
- Friday, March 13: No notable earnings. CNBC
Key watch: Oracle on Tuesday is tech-sector important and could influence QQQ direction early in the week. Adobe after the close Thursday is a major AI/software bellwether — in the current environment, any guidance miss could amplify downward pressure on tech into Friday's macro data dump.
SECTION 4 — 30-DAY MARKET OUTLOOK
Assessment: BEARISH
The weight of evidence has shifted meaningfully to the downside. The market was already dealing with a multiple compression environment in tech, but this week added two new threats that are harder to trade around: a stagflationary macro backdrop and a geopolitical shock. With oil surging past $90 per barrel following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and the labor market unexpectedly shedding 92,000 jobs in February, the market is now simultaneously pricing in higher inflation risk AND slower growth Yahoo Finance — the worst combination for equities. The Fed is effectively boxed in. They can't cut into rising energy prices, and they can't hike into a weakening labor market.
Technically, SPX broke below the critical 6,800 level that had held as support through the prior multi-week range. Small caps, as measured by IWM, are now trading below their 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages with RSI in oversold territory around 33 Historicaloptiondata — but oversold doesn't mean bottoming in a trending-down environment. The next significant SPX support zone is the 6,600–6,650 area. A failure there opens a path toward the 200-day moving average, which comes in closer to 6,400–6,450.
For options traders specifically: this is not an environment to be aggressively selling premium without a clear-eyed view of event risk. VIX at 29.49 Yahoo Finance means elevated IV across the board — good for premium collection in theory, but the risk is a continued vol spike on the CPI print Wednesday or the PCE/GDP data Friday. The Fed "quiet period" begins Saturday, so there will be no Fed speaker rescue attempts this week. The 30-day outlook favors defined-risk structures, wider wings, and reduced position sizing until the CPI print resolves and the market demonstrates the ability to hold a level. The primary risk to this bearish thesis is a surprisingly cool CPI number Wednesday that reopens the rate-cut narrative — that would likely produce a sharp short-covering rally, particularly in small caps.