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## 📈 SECTION 1 — WEEKLY MARKET SCORECARD
| Index | Prior Close (Apr 2) | Fri Close (Apr 10) | Point Chg | % Chg | Direction |
|-------|---------------------|--------------------|-----------|-------|-----------|
| **SPX** | 6,582.69 | 6,824.66 | +241.97 | +3.68% | 🟢 ▲ |
| **QQQ** | 584.98 | 611.07 | +26.09 | +4.46% | 🟢 ▲ |
| **IWM** | 251.29 | ~261.20 | +9.91 | +3.94% | 🟢 ▲ |
*Note: "Prior Close" references Thursday April 2 because April 3 was Good Friday (markets closed). Easter Monday April 6 trading resumed. VIX closed the week near 19.2, down sharply from 23+ the prior week.*
### What Drove the Week
This was the strongest week for equities since November. SPX ripped +3.7%, QQQ +4.5%, and IWM +3.9%, putting together a seven-session winning streak into Friday. The primary catalyst was geopolitical: the U.S. State Department confirmed a two-week "humanitarian and diplomatic pause" with Iran on Friday morning, triggering a relief rally across global risk assets. Oil pulled back from recent highs, Treasury yields eased, and the VIX collapsed from the low-20s into the high-teens — the cleanest risk-on signature we've seen all quarter.
Underneath the geopolitics, the tape got help from a dovish read on the FOMC minutes earlier in the week and from positioning unwinds — hedge funds and systematic shorts were forced to cover into a market that refused to roll over. The CPI print on Friday was in-line enough not to derail the rally, and that opened the door for rate-cut expectations to firm up for later in Q2. Breadth improved meaningfully during the advance, though SPX is still only just reclaiming its 50-day moving average (~6,789). The rally is real, but it's built on a squeeze plus a geopolitical truce — neither of which is durable on its own.
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## 📅 SECTION 2 — NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR
**Monday, April 13**
- Light data day — Federal budget statement (March), 2:00 PM ET
**Tuesday, April 14**
- 🔥🔥 PPI (Producer Price Index) — March, 8:30 AM ET
- NFIB Small Business Optimism — 6:00 AM ET
- Import/Export prices — 8:30 AM ET
**Wednesday, April 15**
- 🔥 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (April) — 8:30 AM ET
- Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (March) — 9:15 AM ET
- NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00 AM ET
- Fed Beige Book — 2:00 PM ET
- *Tax Day (US)*
**Thursday, April 16**
- 🔥 Housing Starts & Building Permits (March) — 8:30 AM ET
- 🔥 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (April) — 8:30 AM ET
- Weekly Jobless Claims — 8:30 AM ET
**Friday, April 17**
- Leading Economic Indicators (March) — 10:00 AM ET
- Options expiration (standard monthly OPEX)
### 🔑 Key Watch
PPI on Tuesday is the marquee release. With CPI already in the rearview, producer prices become the cleanest forward read on inflation pass-through — particularly important given tariff uncertainty is still live. Retail Sales (originally scheduled for April 16) has been pushed to April 21, so the data slate this week is lighter than a typical post-CPI week, which is actually helpful — it leaves room for bank earnings to drive the tape. Watch the Fed Beige Book Wednesday afternoon for qualitative color on how regional Feds are seeing consumer and business activity post-tariff-announcement. Philly Fed and Empire State together give a clean April-month manufacturing snapshot. Friday is standard monthly OPEX — expect dealer gamma unwind to create some choppiness, especially into the close.
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## 💰 SECTION 3 — MAJOR EARNINGS THIS WEEK
**Monday, April 13**
- 🔥 Goldman Sachs (GS) — before open (kicks off bank earnings season)
- Fastenal (FAST) — before open
- M&T Bank (MTB) — before open
**Tuesday, April 14**
- 🔥🔥 JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — before open
- 🔥 Wells Fargo (WFC) — before open
- 🔥 Citigroup (C) — before open
- BlackRock (BLK) — before open
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — before open
- PNC Financial (PNC) — before open
**Wednesday, April 15**
- 🔥 Bank of America (BAC) — before open
- 🔥 ASML Holding (ASML) — before open
- Abbott Labs (ABT) — before open
- U.S. Bancorp (USB) — before open
- Kinder Morgan (KMI) — after close
**Thursday, April 16**
- 🔥🔥 TSMC (TSM) — before open
- 🔥🔥 Netflix (NFLX) — after close
- Morgan Stanley (MS) — before open
- UnitedHealth Group — *(moved to Apr 21)*
- Travelers (TRV) — before open
**Friday, April 17**
- 🔥 American Express (AXP) — before open
- Schlumberger (SLB) — before open
- State Street (STT) — before open
### 🔑 Key Watch
This is the week Q1 earnings season actually starts. **JPMorgan Tuesday morning is the single most important print** — Dimon's commentary on credit conditions, investment banking activity, and the health of the consumer will set the tone for the entire Financials sector and will be cross-read into the broader macro narrative. Consensus expects JPM EPS +7% YoY to ~$5.44 with investment banking fees up roughly 18% YoY on the back of the M&A and debt refi cycle — a beat reinforces the "Wall Street fee machine is back" thesis; a miss kills it. **TSMC and Netflix Thursday** are the week's second catalyst cluster: TSMC is the cleanest read on AI capex (Street is modeling ~38% revenue growth), and Netflix is the bellwether for the ad-tier / pricing power consumer narrative. If both beat, mega-cap tech gets another leg up. If either disappoints, the QQQ rally from this week gets tested immediately. American Express Friday is a real-time consumer spending tape.
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## 🔮 SECTION 4 — 30-DAY MARKET OUTLOOK
### Overall Bias: Cautiously Bullish 🟢🟡
The tape has shifted. A week ago this sat at neutral-to-bearish; the combination of the Iran pause, a cooperative CPI print, and a seven-day win streak has flipped the short-term structure constructive. But this is a *tactical* upgrade, not a strategic one — the same overhangs (tariffs, 59 straight months of above-target inflation, a Fed that can't cut as fast as markets want) are all still on the board.
### Technical Levels
- **SPX 6,824** — just above the 50-day MA (~6,789), which flipped from resistance to support on Friday. This is the line that matters most.
- **SPX 6,642** — 200-day MA, remains the longer-term trend line.
- **Resistance:** 6,900 (prior swing) → 7,000 (psychological) → ~7,050 all-time-high zone.
- **Support:** 6,789 (50-day) → 6,642 (200-day) → 6,500 (prior breakdown zone).
- **RSI (daily):** ~64 — strong momentum but approaching overbought; room to run but not unlimited.
- **VIX:** 19.23 — back inside the "normal" regime. A sustained move below 17 would confirm full risk-on; a spike back above 22 flips the setup.
- **QQQ 611 / IWM 261** — QQQ leading, IWM confirming. Small-cap participation is the bullish tell here. If IWM rolls over first, that's the early warning.
### Macro Narrative
The next 30 days are a tug-of-war between an improving earnings picture (Q1 consensus: +13% EPS growth YoY, strongest since 2022) and a still-hawkish policy backdrop. The Iran pause buys two weeks of cleaner tape — use it. Bank earnings this week, mega-cap tech earnings next week (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AAPL start hitting late April), and then the April 29–30 FOMC meeting is the next hard catalyst. The setup favors continuation of the rally into earnings, with the most likely path being a grind toward 6,900–7,000 on SPX before the Fed meeting introduces real two-way risk.
### Primary Risk to the Thesis
**The Iran "pause" is two weeks — not a ceasefire.** If the pause breaks before April 24, oil spikes back to $110+, and the VIX retraces its entire weekly decline overnight. Secondary risks: a hot PPI print Tuesday, a disappointing JPM that calls out consumer credit deterioration, or a hawkish Fed Beige Book that resets rate-cut expectations. Any one of those flips the bias back to neutral; two or more and we're back to cautiously bearish with the 200-day MA in play.
### Flyagonal Implications
The structural setup is *good* for Flyagonal entries right now. VIX in the high teens compresses premium but also compresses tail risk — the 4–14 DTE window is less likely to see a gap event than it was a week ago. Delta-neutral BWB entries with 50/60-wide call wings over the 6,900 area, paired with put diagonals below 6,700, fit cleanly into the current structure. If the grind-higher scenario plays out, the upside adjustment (roll out the long calls) gets you out of the danger zone before OPEX.
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## Legal Disclaimer
*While these are live market observations, past performance does not guarantee results. Trading options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors.*