OIA Weekly Market Report

Week Ending April 24, 2026 | Prepared April 25, 2026

📊 SECTION 1 — WEEKLY MARKET SCORECARD

IndexPrior Fri Close (4/17)This Fri Close (4/24)Point Change% ChangeDirectionSPX~7,1227,165.08+43.08+0.6%🟢 ↑QQQ~$653.66~$663.46+$9.80+1.5%🟢 ↑IWM~$275.30~$276.65+$1.35+0.5%🟢 ↑

Note: Prior Friday closes are estimated from weekly change percentages. QQQ and IWM closes are approximate based on available range data.

Weekly Narrative:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at fresh record highs on Friday, capping a week defined by two forces: geopolitics and earnings. Semiconductor stocks led the charge — Intel surged 23.6% on Friday (its best day since October 1987) after a blowout Q1 earnings report, dragging the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) to its 18th consecutive positive session and an 11% weekly gain. Nvidia recaptured a $5 trillion market cap in the final hours of Friday's session.

On the geopolitical front, President Trump extended the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and announced a three-week Israel–Lebanon ceasefire extension. Pakistan-mediated Iran peace talks are set for Saturday in Islamabad with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in attendance. Markets rallied on the ceasefire news mid-week, though sentiment whipsawed as analysts warned investors may be over-reading peace signals. The Dow underperformed with a -0.4% weekly loss, weighed down by cyclicals, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed at +1.5%. The week's bifurcation was clear: AI and semiconductors carried the market, while the average stock lagged.

📅 SECTION 2 — NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR (April 28 – May 1)

This is one of the most consequential weeks of the year. Central bank meetings from five major economies converge with a wall of tier-1 economic data.

Monday, April 28

• Bank of Japan rate decision
• Euro area bank lending survey

Tuesday, April 29

• 🔥 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)
• Australia CPI
• Germany CPI (preliminary)

Wednesday, April 30

• 🔥🔥🔥 FOMC rate decision + Powell press conference (2:00 PM / 2:30 PM ET)
• 🔥 Bank of Canada rate decision
• China PMI (manufacturing + services)

Thursday, May 1

• 🔥🔥 U.S. GDP (Q1 advance estimate)
• 🔥🔥 U.S. PCE Price Index (March) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge
• 🔥 Bank of England rate decision
• 🔥 ECB rate decision
• Eurozone GDP (Q1 flash estimate)
• Eurozone CPI (flash estimate)
• Germany GDP + retail sales
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, May 2

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (April) — if scheduled this week; confirm closer to date

🔑 Key Watch: The FOMC is the main event. Markets price a 99.5% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%, so the decision itself is a non-event — but Powell's press conference language on inflation trajectory, the Iran war's impact on energy costs, and timing of the next cut will move markets. The March PCE print on Thursday is the second pillar: sticky CPI (0.9% monthly, 3%+ annual) has already pushed rate-cut expectations to late 2026. If PCE confirms that inflation pressure, the "higher for longer" narrative hardens further. Five central bank decisions in 48 hours means volatility is almost guaranteed.

💰 SECTION 3 — MAJOR EARNINGS THIS WEEK (April 28 – May 2)

This is the biggest earnings week of the quarter. Mega-cap tech reports back-to-back.

Monday, April 28

• General Motors (GM), Visa (V)

Tuesday, April 29

• 🔥 Microsoft (MSFT), 🔥 Alphabet (GOOGL)
• 🔥 Meta Platforms (META), 🔥 Amazon (AMZN)
• AbbVie (ABBV), Ford (F), SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

Wednesday, April 30

• 🔥 Apple (AAPL), 🔥 Eli Lilly (LLY)
• Mastercard (MA), Roblox (RBLX)

Thursday, May 1

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX)
• Dominion Energy (D), Colgate-Palmivie (CL), Estée Lauder (EL)

Friday/Saturday, May 2–3

• 🔥 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) — annual shareholders meeting

🔑 Key Watch: This is the week that validates (or breaks) the AI trade. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple reporting within 48 hours will tell us whether AI capex is translating into revenue acceleration or if we're still in the "spending now, monetizing later" phase. Tech has driven 84% of upward earnings revisions this year and is expected to contribute 67% of 2026 earnings growth (Nvidia alone at 21%). If guidance disappoints from even two of these names, the narrow market leadership becomes a vulnerability. Eli Lilly is the other must-watch — GLP-1 demand trajectory sets the tone for healthcare. Berkshire's meeting will give Buffett's read on valuations, energy, and macro.

🔮 SECTION 4 — 30-DAY MARKET OUTLOOK

Overall Bias: Cautiously Bullish — with rising event risk

Technical Levels (SPX)

• Current level: 7,165 (record close)
• Near-term support: 7,100 (recent breakout level, now support), 7,000 (psychological + prior resistance-turned-support)
• Deeper support: 6,840 (March consolidation zone), 6,600 (200-day moving average area estimate)
• Resistance: No overhead resistance at all-time highs — price discovery mode
• VIX: 18.92, down from 19.31. Elevated vs. the sub-15 baseline of early 2026, reflecting residual Iran conflict uncertainty. Not signaling panic, but not complacent either.
• RSI: Likely overbought or near-overbought on daily timeframe after consecutive record closes. Watch for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

Macro Narrative

The market is powered by three engines right now: AI earnings momentum, ceasefire/peace optimism, and a Fed on hold. Tech and semis are doing all the heavy lifting — the SOXX has posted 18 straight up days, and mega-cap AI names continue to attract capital. Analysts have revised S&P 500 earnings estimates up 4%, with tech responsible for the lion's share. The consensus year-end target sits around 7,500 (Reuters median), with Oppenheimer at 8,100.

The Iran situation remains the wildcard. Markets have largely priced in a ceasefire-to-peace trajectory, but the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked, oil supply disruption is the largest in IEA history, and energy inflation hasn't fully worked through the system. The March CPI print (3%+ annualized) and a Fed pinned at 3.50–3.75% with only one cut projected for 2026 mean the macro backdrop is tighter than the equity market's optimism suggests.

The equity risk premium is near zero — the S&P 500's forward earnings yield is essentially at parity with the 10-year Treasury. That's not a timing signal, but it means the margin for error is razor-thin.

Primary Risk to the Thesis

A breakdown in Iran peace talks combined with a hot PCE print. If Pakistan-mediated talks collapse this weekend and the March PCE confirms sticky inflation on Thursday, the market loses both of its bullish pillars simultaneously — geopolitical de-escalation and rate-cut hopes. A spike in oil prices from renewed Hormuz disruption would amplify the damage. In that scenario, the narrow AI leadership that's been carrying the market becomes a liability as rotation into defensives accelerates and the VIX gaps above 25.

Secondary risk: Big Tech earnings miss on guidance. If Microsoft, Meta, or Amazon signal a pause in AI capex or lower-than-expected AI revenue contribution, the "AI justifies everything" thesis cracks.

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