Weekly Market Report — April 3, 2026

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SECTION 1 — WEEKLY MARKET SCORECARD

Note: US markets closed Friday April 3 (Good Friday). Final prices reflect Thursday April 2 close. Prior week close = March 27.

IndexMar 27 CloseApr 2 ClosePt Change% ChangeDirection

📈SPX6,528.526,575.32+46.80+0.72%

📈QQQ$562.58$584.98+$22.40+3.98%

📈IWM$243.10~$247.50+~$4.40+~1.81%

📈VIX25.2523.87-1.38-5.47%

What Drove the Week

This was a two-act week defined by geopolitics and whiplash sentiment. Early in the week, U.S.-Iran tensions escalated sharply — President Trump delivered formal warnings of escalated attacks on Iran, triggering retaliatory responses. Brent crude hit its highest levels since 2008, gasoline broke above $4/gallon nationally for the first time in three-plus years, and aluminum surged 5.5% on the London Metal Exchange as Iranian attacks disrupted Middle Eastern producers. Risk assets sold off hard, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.9% on April 2 alone.

Then sentiment flipped. By late in the week, unconfirmed reports surfaced that Iranian President Pezeshkian was open to ending the conflict with guarantees. Oil reversed, equities staged their biggest single-day rally since May, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted sharp recoveries. On the macro front, ADP employment, retail sales, and consumer confidence all came in above estimates, though the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP Nowcast was revised lower again. The Fed's updated dot plot showed a growing number of officials favoring zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, with the inflation forecast bumped to 2.7%. SPX ended the shortened week modestly higher but remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

SECTION 2 — NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR (April 6–10)

Monday, April 6

• Markets reopen after Good Friday
• 🔥 Delayed reaction to March Jobs Report (released Good Friday: 178K nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate 4.3%) — expect this to drive Monday's open

Tuesday, April 7

• No major scheduled releases
• Fed speaker window still open (FOMC blackout begins April 18)

Wednesday, April 8

• No major scheduled releases

Thursday, April 9

• Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — weekly data for week ending April 4

Friday, April 10

• 🔥🔥🔥 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) — March 2026 data
  • This is THE release of the week. With the Fed having raised its inflation forecast to 2.7% and tariff-driven price pressure still in play, this print will set the tone for the rest of April.

Key Watch

This is a light calendar week with one dominant event: Friday's CPI print. With the Fed increasingly hawkish (dot plot shifting toward zero cuts in 2026) and tariff-related cost pressures still working through the system, a hot CPI number would reinforce the "higher for longer" narrative and likely pressure equities. A softer print would be the single most bullish catalyst available right now. Monday's open will also carry weight — the March jobs report (178K, 4.3% unemployment) was released when markets were closed on Good Friday, so traders will react to it at Monday's bell.

Coming the following week: PPI (April 14), Retail Sales (April 21), FOMC Meeting (April 28–29).

SECTION 3 — MAJOR EARNINGS THIS WEEK

This Past Week (March 30 – April 3)

Tuesday, March 31 (~99 reports — busiest day)

• Nike (NKE) — Fiscal Q3 2026 (after close). Most closely watched name of the week. Stock trading at lowest dollar level since 2017, well below fair value estimates (~$102), with a 3% dividend yield. Market focused on 2026 guidance and management outlook.
• TD Synnex (SNX) — Fiscal Q1 2026 (before open). Expected EPS $3.31 (+18.2% YoY), revenue $15.65B (+7.7% YoY).

Next Week (April 6–10)

Wednesday, April 8

• Delta Air Lines (DAL) — Q1 2026 earnings call. Airline sector bellwether; post-Q1 guidance critical for reading consumer travel demand and fuel cost impact given the oil spike.
• Constellation Brands (STZ) — Q1 2026 earnings. Wall Street flagging this as a "meaningful re-rating catalyst" with a $170 price target in play.

Key Watch

Light earnings week. Delta is the most market-relevant name — airlines are a direct read on consumer spending and fuel cost pressure, both of which are in flux given the Iran-driven oil spike and tariff-related inflation. Constellation Brands matters more for stock-specific reasons than macro signal. The real earnings season kicks off the following week with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo (April 14), Netflix (April 16), and Intel (April 23).

SECTION 4 — 30-DAY MARKET OUTLOOK

Overall Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish (with upside catalyst potential from CPI)

Technical Levels

IndicatorLevelSPX Position50-day MA6,789Below by ~214 pts200-day MA6,642Below by ~67 ptsRSI45.7Below neutral, not oversoldVIX23.87Elevated but declining

Key support: 6,304 → 5,944Key resistance: 6,642 (200-day MA) → 6,700 (bullish trigger) → 6,789 (50-day MA)Breadth: Only 27.6% of S&P constituents above their 50-day MA; 49.2% above their 200-day. Participation is weak.

SPX entered correction territory (10% drawdown) on March 30, dipping to the 6,310–6,350 range before bouncing. It closed the week at 6,575 — still below both major moving averages. A weekly close above 6,700 is needed to break the bearish structure.

Macro Narrative

The market is caught between two forces. On the bullish side: AI capex remains a structural tailwind (Morgan Stanley estimates $3T in data center capex ahead, <20% deployed), Goldman forecasts 2.8% global growth and 2.6% US growth above consensus, and central bank easing is underway in multiple regions. On the bearish side: sticky inflation (tariffs keeping upward pressure, Fed forecast at 2.7%), geopolitical risk (Iran conflict far from resolved), weakening labor market (manufacturing down 89K jobs since "Liberation Day"), and the Fed's hawkish pivot toward zero cuts in 2026.

Tariff update: April 2 marked the one-year anniversary of "Liberation Day." Trump signed new trade actions adjusting tariff enforcement methodology on steel, aluminum, and copper — rates stay at 50%, but collection is tightening. One year in, the trade deficit is roughly flat, manufacturing employment is down, and global trade is increasingly realigning without the US. The Supreme Court's February ruling that IEEPA cannot be used for tariffs is forcing a $166B refund process. Tariff policy is now more of a persistent drag than a catalyst in either direction.

Primary Risk to Thesis

A hot CPI print on April 10 combined with continued Iran escalation would create a stagflationary setup — rising prices, slowing growth, no Fed relief. That's the worst-case scenario for equities in the near term and would likely push SPX back toward the 6,300 support level. Conversely, a soft CPI + credible Iran ceasefire would be the setup for a sharp relief rally back to the 200-day MA.

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