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Prefer to watch? Here's this weekend's video update.
The Week in Review
This was a 4-day week (markets closed Monday for Memorial Day) that packed a full week's worth of news. The headline was Dell — shares surged 33% on Friday after reporting AI server revenue up 757% year-over-year, its best single day on record. That move pulled HPE, Super Micro, Micron, and Qualcomm higher with it, reinforcing the AI hardware broadening thesis that has dominated May. Meanwhile, PCE for April came in at 3.8% — the highest inflation reading in nearly three years — and the market shrugged it off and hit fresh all-time highs the same day. That tells you exactly where risk appetite stands right now.
The Iran backdrop added noise throughout the week: airstrikes, ceasefire rumors, denial, more rumors. The net effect was that oil fell — WTI dropped below $87 — and the market used that as another reason to buy.
Weekly Market Scorecard — Week Ending May 30, 2026
| Index | May 22 Close | May 29 Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,473.45 | 7,580.06 | +106.61 | +1.43% ↑ |
| QQQ | 717.54 | 738.31 | +20.77 | +2.90% ↑ |
| IWM | ~285 | 290.43 | ~+5.43 | ~+1.91% ↑ |
SPX logged its 9th consecutive winning week — the longest such streak since 2023 — closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time in history. The Nasdaq gained 8.36% for the month of May, its best month in years. It was a 4-day holiday week, but the tape made no apologies for the short session count.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed Friday at 7,580, up 106 points (+1.43%) from the prior Friday close of 7,473. The index marked its 9th consecutive winning week and its 7th straight winning day — the longest such run since 2023. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time in history. Near-term resistance sits at 7,600 (the intraday ATH from this week) and 7,700. Support is at 7,500, then 7,450 — the May breakout shelf. VIX at 15.32 signals full complacency; there is no hedging premium in the market.
Volatility (VIX)
VIX closed at 15.32, down from 15.74 the prior session. Deep complacency territory. The options market is not pricing any near-term risk despite PCE running at 3.8% and NFP on the calendar next Friday. When VIX is this low at all-time highs, the catalyst for a spike almost always comes from a macro surprise — not technical deterioration. Keep that in mind heading into jobs week.
QQQ
QQQ closed Friday at 738, up from 718 the prior week (+2.90%). The Nasdaq gained 8.36% in May — its best month in years. Near-term resistance is 750; support is 720. The sector story this week was unambiguous: AI hardware is broadening beyond NVDA and into the full supply chain.
IWM
IWM closed at 290, up from approximately 285 last week. The Russell 2000 is within sight of 3,000 on the underlying index (closed at 2,919), but small caps underperformed on Friday (-0.60%). IWM is up over 40% in the past 12 months — structurally strong — but it is not leading this rally. Capital continues to flow toward AI mega-cap names, and IWM won't take the baton until the Fed signals cuts or the AI story broadens to a wider economic lift.
Next Week's Economic Calendar — June 1–6
Monday June 1 — ISM Manufacturing PMI 🔥; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final).
Tuesday June 2 — JOLTS Job Openings (April) 🔥.
Wednesday June 3 — ADP National Employment Report (May) 🔥; ISM Services PMI 🔥; Fed Beige Book 🔥. Broadcom (AVGO) earnings after close.
Thursday June 4 — Initial Jobless Claims; Factory Orders. Costco (COST) earnings after close.
Friday June 6 — 🔥🔥 Nonfarm Payrolls (May) — unemployment rate, average hourly earnings.
Key watch: NFP on Friday June 6 is the week's defining print. With PCE already at 3.8%, a strong jobs number forces the market to confront the "higher for longer" scenario it has been ignoring. ADP on Wednesday sets the early tone. Broadcom (AVGO) Wednesday after close is the single most important earnings event of the week — AI semiconductor revenue guidance around $10.7B will either push QQQ through 750 or crack the AI premium.
30-Day Market Outlook
Overall Bias: Bullish, with elevated caution into NFP.
Technical levels: SPX resistance at 7,600 (intraday ATH) and 7,700 (Goldman year-end target zone). Support at 7,500 (psychological), 7,450 (May breakout shelf). QQQ resistance 750; support 720. VIX at 15.32 — full complacency, no hedging premium.
Macro narrative: Three co-reinforcing engines are driving the market: AI infrastructure capex driving mega-cap earnings beats, Iran ceasefire hopes suppressing oil and energy-driven inflation fears, and a labor market strong enough to support consumption but not yet hot enough to force the Fed's hand. GDPNow at +4.3% for Q2 is a genuinely strong economic backdrop. Goldman Sachs raised their year-end SPX target to 8,000.
Primary risk: A hot NFP alongside a Fed speaker who reintroduces rate hike language. PCE at 3.8% is already above the Fed's comfort zone — the market has been ignoring it, but a strong labor market removes the last rationale for the "Fed on hold" base case. Secondary risk: Iran deal falling apart, sending WTI back toward $95–100.