.png)
Prefer to watch? Here's this weekend's video update.
The Week in Review
The Nasdaq posted five straight losing sessions — its longest losing streak since February — falling 4.6% on the week as the global AI/chip trade continued to unravel. SpaceX (SPCX) shed more than $600B from its June 12 IPO peak, including a single-day $400B loss Monday that was the second-largest in history. Alphabet dropped 5% Monday on AI talent departure concerns, and Korea's KOSPI plunged 10% Tuesday, triggering circuit breakers.
Bank of America issued a note warning of up to three rate hikes in 2026, rattling the market Tuesday alongside a 7% drop in the SMH chip ETF. Micron (MU) fell 13% Tuesday, then reported earnings Wednesday after close and beat handily — but Apple dragged the Nasdaq to a fourth losing day Thursday anyway. The Nasdaq finished the week -4.6%. The S&P 500 fell ~2%. The Dow rose 0.6% — textbook rotation into defensives.
Oil cratered to $70/barrel (WTI), its lowest since early March, as Iran ceasefire optimism returned. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari explicitly signaled one rate hike this year. The 10-year yield dipped below 4.5% but remained sticky. The S&P 500 Equal Weight index outpaced the cap-weighted SPX all week — nearly 60% of S&P components were green on the worst days. This is a concentrated mega-cap tech selloff, not a broad market breakdown.
Weekly Market Scorecard — Week Ending June 27, 2026
| Index | June 20 Close | June 27 Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | ~7,501 | 7,354.02 | ~-147 | ~-2.0% ↓ |
| QQQ | ~737 | ~706 | ~-31 | ~-4.2% ↓ |
| IWM | ~291 | ~287 | ~-4 | ~-1.4% ↓ |
VIX closed at 19.00. Russell 2000 at 2,990 — just below the key 3,000 level. Dow outperformed the week, rising 0.6%, as investors rotated into healthcare, industrials, and consumer staples.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed Friday at 7,354, down approximately 147 points (-2.0%) from the prior Friday. Key support: 7,300 (major psychological level), 7,200 (50-day MA — untested since April), 7,100 (200-day MA region). Resistance: 7,450 (prior support shelf), 7,500 (round number + prior breakout ledge). Two weeks of selling have taken SPX from 7,580 to 7,354 — a 226-point drawdown from the ATH.
Volatility (VIX)
VIX at 19.00 — elevated but not panicked. The pattern from June 6 (VIX ran from 15 to 21, then settled into the 19–21 range for 3 weeks) is repeating. Complacency is gone. The market is in a higher-vol regime until NFP Thursday gives directional clarity.
QQQ
QQQ closed near 706, down approximately 4.2% on the week. The Nasdaq hit all-time highs on June 2 (745+) and has now given back roughly 5.3% from that peak. Support: 700, 685. Resistance: 720, 738. The AI trade is being repriced — not a one-week correction, but a sustained regime shift away from the momentum-driven premium.
IWM
IWM closed near 287, down roughly 1.4% on the week — significantly outperforming QQQ. The Russell 2000 at 2,990 is just below 3,000. A close above 3,000 on a soft NFP would confirm the rotation thesis. A break below 2,900 would signal recession fears are reasserting. Support: 280, 275. Resistance: 295, 300.
Next Week’s Economic Calendar — June 30 – July 3
Tuesday June 30 — JOLTS Job Openings (May) 🔥; Consumer Confidence (June).
Wednesday July 1 — ADP Employment Change (June) 🔥; ISM Manufacturing PMI 🔥; Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Portugal 🔥🔥.
Thursday July 2 — 🔥🔥 Nonfarm Payrolls (June) — released early due to July 4 holiday. Consensus: +172K. Unemployment rate, average hourly earnings.
Friday July 3 — Markets close early. July 4 (Saturday) — Markets closed.
Key watch: Warsh speaking Wednesday + NFP Thursday is the highest-stakes two-day rate-path setup since the June FOMC. Consensus for June NFP is +172K — same as May’s blowout. A second straight hot print combined with hawkish Warsh language breaks 10-year yields above 4.6% and tests SPX 7,200. A soft print (below 120K) is the relief valve the market needs to reclaim 7,450+.
30-Day Market Outlook
Overall Bias: Cautious / neutral. The bull case rests on earnings quality and economic strength. The bear case rests on rates and AI premium deflation. NFP Thursday decides which wins.
Technical levels: SPX support 7,300 / 7,200 (50-day MA) / 7,100 (200-day MA). Resistance 7,450 / 7,500. VIX 19.00 — elevated. IWM at 2,990 on the Russell — the 3,000 level is the week’s most important single number for small caps. QQQ support 700/685; resistance 720/738.
Macro narrative: Three forces in tension — (1) AI infrastructure spending decelerating at the margin (AVGO miss, SpaceX collapse, OpenAI IPO delay); (2) Broader economy still healthy (+172K NFP, 4.3% unemployment, strong consumer); (3) Fed moving toward a hike (Kashkari signaled one, BofA warned of three). These cannot coexist indefinitely. Thursday’s NFP is the resolution catalyst.
Primary risk: Hot NFP (above 150K) + Warsh hawkish Wednesday = 10-year breaks 4.6%, SPX tests 7,200. Secondary risk: OpenAI formally delays/cancels IPO, removing AI premium from Magnificent 7 names.