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The Week in Review
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 Monday with billions in forced passive buying. More importantly, SK Hynix debuted on US markets Friday in the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company, raising $26.5B with ADRs surging 20% above offering price. NVDA gained 4%, Meta jumped 6% after SemiAnalysis published a bullish piece on its AI compute infrastructure, and Delta Air Lines beat Q2 earnings and raised its dividend. The AI trade that looked shaky three weeks ago is back in charge.
The headwinds were real but temporary. Iran broke the ceasefire Wednesday — attacking a Qatari LNG tanker near the Strait of Hormuz — the US launched airstrikes, and oil surged 5% to ~$72 (WTI). Airlines sold off. Yet SPX barely flinched. FOMC minutes Wednesday confirmed 9 of 19 Fed officials expect at least one rate hike before year-end — September probability now 61%. Still the market held. The inflation pipeline is cooling — ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid posted its largest single-month drop since July 2022 — setting up Tuesday's CPI as the make-or-break print.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed Friday at 7,575, up ~92 points (+1.23%) from the prior Friday close of 7,483. Just 46 points from its all-time high of 7,620.90 (set June 2). Nasdaq YTD: +29%. Resistance: 7,620 (ATH). Support: 7,500, 7,450, 7,350–7,400 (correction floor). The 50-day MA near 7,250 has not been tested since May.
Volatility (VIX)
VIX at 15.75 — down from 16.15. Near equilibrium. Not complacent, not panicked. Tuesday's CPI will move it decisively — soft print sends it toward 14, hot print with hawkish Warsh pushes it toward 18–20.
QQQ
QQQ at 725.51, up modestly on the week. Resistance: 738, 746 (ATH). Support: 710, 700. SK Hynix's IPO success and Meta's AI compute story are the two most bullish AI-adjacent data points in weeks.
IWM
IWM near 277, down ~3.8% on the week — giving back all of the holiday week gains. Russell 2000 at 2,977. Small caps won't lead until rate hike fears are definitively off the table. Support: 275, 270. Resistance: 285, 295, 300.
The Week Ahead
Bias: Cautiously bullish into CPI — soft print takes out the ATH; hot print retests 7,400.
Tuesday July 14 is the most consequential single session of the month — possibly the quarter. CPI at 8:30 AM ET, five major banks reporting before the open (JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, C), and Warsh testifying on Capitol Hill simultaneously. The inflation pipeline has been cooling: ISM Prices Paid posted its largest single-month drop since July 2022 and energy is down 20% from its peak. A soft CPI (below 3.8% YoY) removes the September rate hike and is the green light for SPX to clear the ATH. A hot print (above 4.2%) with hawkish Warsh forces September fully priced and reverses the two-week recovery. TSM reports Thursday — the most important AI earnings of the week. Netflix also reports Thursday.