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Prefer to watch? Here's this weekend's video update.
The Week in Review
The Magnificent 7 collectively shed nearly $800 billion in market cap on Thursday in their worst single session since April 2025. Alphabet beat earnings handily (EPS $9.11 vs $2.88 expected) but raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $195–205 billion — and the stock fell 7.1%. Tesla missed badly (Q2 earnings miss, negative free cash flow, operating expenses rising faster than revenue) and fell 14.5% — its worst post-earnings day since 2019. The market’s message: it doesn’t care how good the numbers are if the capex keeps going up.
Brent crude hit $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since late May as the US-Iran conflict escalated. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.7% — its highest level since January 2025. Then overnight Thursday into Friday, Trump imposed new 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 trade partners. Intel reported its strongest revenue growth in 15 years and still fell 7.9% Friday on chip sector sentiment. The broader market closed the week down 0.61% — orderly given the damage, but the second straight weekly loss.
Silver linings: S&P Global’s flash PMI showed US business activity expanded at the fastest pace in 8 months. Small caps continued to outperform mega-cap tech. The rotation into defensives, industrials, and small caps is the clearest structural trade right now.
Weekly Market Scorecard — Week Ending July 25, 2026
| Index | July 18 Close | July 25 Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,457.69 | 7,411.98 | -45.71 | -0.61% ↓ |
| QQQ | ~698 | ~693 | ~-5 | ~-0.7% ↓ |
| IWM | ~280 | ~277 | ~-3 | ~-1.1% ↓ |
VIX: 18.58. 10-year yield: 4.693% (highest since Jan 2025). Brent crude hit $100 Thursday. Dow outperformed on defensive rotation.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed at 7,412, down ~46 points (-0.61%) on the week. Key support: 7,350–7,400 (critical floor), 7,300 (correction range floor), 7,250 (50-day MA). Resistance: 7,450, 7,500, 7,575 (prior week close). A close below 7,400 on hawkish FOMC language Wednesday shifts the short-term trend to bearish.
Volatility (VIX)
VIX at 18.58 — elevated, range-bound. A hawkish FOMC surprise Wednesday could push VIX above 22 and trigger systematic selling. Each Friday for three straight weeks has seen a VIX spike — the market is not finding a weekly footing.
QQQ
QQQ near 693, down ~0.7% on the week. Support: 685, 680 (prior base), 670 (50-day MA). Resistance: 700, 710, 720. The AI premium that drove H1 2026 is in a structural correction.
IWM
IWM near 277, down ~1.1% on the week but significantly outperforming QQQ over the past month. Russell 2000 at 2,930. The rotation out of mega-cap tech into small caps is real and broadening. Support: 2,900, 2,875. Resistance: 2,960, 3,000.
Next Week’s Economic Calendar — July 27–31
Monday July 27 — Durable Goods Orders (June).
Tuesday July 28 — Consumer Confidence; Earnings: Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, Visa, Ford.
Wednesday July 29 — FOMC Rate Decision & Warsh Press Conference 🔥🔥🔥; Q2 GDP (Advance Estimate) 🔥🔥; Earnings: Amazon (AMZN) 🔥🔥🔥, Meta (META) 🔥🔥🔥, Microsoft (MSFT) 🔥🔥 — all after close.
Thursday July 30 — PCE Price Index (June) 🔥🔥; Initial Jobless Claims; Earnings: Apple (AAPL) after close 🔥🔥.
Friday July 31 — Employment Cost Index (Q2) 🔥; Chicago PMI; Michigan Sentiment (Final).
Key watch: Wednesday July 29 is the most consequential single session of the year. FOMC decision + Warsh press conference + Q2 GDP + Amazon + Meta + Microsoft all on the same day. With Brent at $96+, new tariffs on 60 nations, and 10-year yields at 4.7%, Warsh faces the most difficult inflation backdrop of his tenure. A hawkish hold sends SPX below 7,300. PCE Thursday is the Fed’s preferred inflation read. Apple Thursday after close rounds out the Mag-7 reporting season.
30-Day Market Outlook
Overall Bias: Cautious. The macro backdrop has materially deteriorated. Wednesday July 29 is the resolution event.
Technical levels: SPX support 7,350–7,400 / 7,300 / 7,250 (50-day MA). Resistance 7,450 / 7,500 / 7,575. VIX 18.58 — elevated. IWM at 2,930 on the Russell — outperforming. QQQ support 685/680; resistance 700/710.
Macro narrative: Four headwinds converged simultaneously: (1) AI capex spiral — Alphabet and Tesla confirm hyperscaler spending is accelerating, not moderating; (2) Oil at $96–100 — Iran conflict 11+ days with no resolution; (3) New tariffs — Trump’s 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 nations now in effect; (4) Treasury yields at 4.7% — highest since before Trump 2.0. Bull case: economy genuinely strong (PMI fastest expansion in 8 months, 88% Q2 earnings beat rate), Amazon and Meta report without alarming capex guidance, Warsh signals patience. If all three happen, SPX rebounds to 7,500+.
Primary risk: Warsh signals September rate hike at the July 29 press conference. Secondary risk: Amazon or Meta raise capex guidance aggressively — a third consecutive Mag-7 member doing so would institutionalize the AI capex spiral narrative and trigger fresh selling across the entire tech sector.