.png)
Prefer to watch? Here's this weekend's video update.
The Week in Review
The week started with chips under pressure. Wednesday saw the SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) drop 6.7% as investors took profits on names that had nearly doubled in H1 — Micron -10%, Sandisk -10%, AMAT -7.4%, AMD -4.3%, Intel -9%, Marvell -9%. But the broader market held. The Dow hit new intraday records on the same day tech sold off — that's the rotation trade in its clearest form.
Warsh spoke at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal Wednesday. He gave nothing on forward guidance and noted "prices are too high." Market-neutral. Then Thursday morning: NFP for June came in at just +57K — nearly half the 110K consensus. May was also revised down from 172K to 129K. Rate hike probability for the July FOMC dropped from 30% to 20% in a single session. SPX rallied, Dow hit all-time highs at 52,900, and the market closed out the holiday week green.
Two other key developments: The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding, formalizing the ceasefire — WTI crude is now near $68, down ~20% from the 2026 peak. Meta jumped +10% on news it's building a cloud compute business, shifting the narrative from "AI capex destroys free cash flow" to "AI capex becomes revenue." Q2 officially wrapped as the strongest quarter since 2020.
Weekly Market Scorecard — Week Ending July 3, 2026
| Index | June 27 Close | July 3 Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,354.02 | 7,483.24 | +129.22 | +1.76% ↑ |
| QQQ | ~706 | ~721 | ~+15 | ~+2.1% ↑ |
| IWM | ~287 | ~288 | ~+1 | ~+0.3% → |
VIX closed at 16.15, down from 19.00. Dow: 52,900.07 — new all-time high. Russell 2000 at 2,996 — just below 3,000. Note: Markets closed Friday July 4; all closes as of Thursday July 3.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed at 7,483, up 129 points (+1.76%) on the week. Key resistance: 7,500 (round number + prior support ledge), 7,580 (ATH from May 29). Key support: 7,350–7,400 (correction floor), 7,300 (major psychological), 7,200 (50-day MA). A clean break above 7,500 on non-hawkish FOMC minutes signals the correction is over.
Volatility (VIX)
VIX at 16.15, down from 19.00. Fear is receding but not back to May's 15.32 complacency level. The market is cautiously optimistic. FOMC minutes Wednesday could push VIX in either direction.
QQQ
QQQ near 721, up ~2.1% on the week. Recovered despite Wednesday's chip selloff — Meta's cloud news and NFP relief carried it higher Thursday. Resistance: 730, 738. Support: 710, 700.
IWM
IWM near 288, roughly flat on the week. Russell 2000 at 2,996 — still below 3,000. A close above 3,000 would be technically significant for the small-cap rotation thesis. Support: 280. Resistance: 300.
Next Week's Economic Calendar — July 6–10
Monday July 6 — ISM Services PMI (June) 🔥; S&P Global Services PMI (Final).
Tuesday July 7 — JOLTS Job Openings (May) 🔥.
Wednesday July 8 — FOMC Meeting Minutes (June) 🔥🔥 — Warsh's first meeting; removed dot plot, dropped forward guidance.
Thursday July 9 — Initial Jobless Claims; Wholesale Inventories.
Key watch: FOMC minutes Wednesday is the week's defining event. Non-hawkish minutes = SPX clears 7,500 and the correction is over. Hawkish minutes = range trade continues. Circle July 14 — JPMorgan and Goldman Q2 earnings before the open on the same morning as CPI. Most consequential single session of the month.
30-Day Market Outlook
Overall Bias: Cautiously bullish. NFP miss bought the market time, oil at $68 is disinflationary, and Meta's cloud pivot is a genuine positive. But SPX at 7,483 is not cheap and the FOMC minutes could flip the narrative.
Technical levels: SPX resistance 7,500 / 7,580 (ATH). Support 7,350–7,400 / 7,300 / 7,200 (50-day MA). VIX 16.15. IWM still below 3,000 on the Russell. QQQ resistance 730/738; support 710/700.
Macro narrative: Three tailwinds now in place: (1) NFP miss removes near-term rate hike urgency; (2) Oil at $68 — down 20% from peak — will show up in July and August CPI; (3) Iran MOU removes geopolitical risk premium from energy. Against that: CPI still at 4.2% YoY, Warsh said "prices are too high," and the rate hike is deferred to December not cancelled. July 14 CPI is the next defining moment.
Primary risk: FOMC minutes more hawkish than expected. Secondary risk: ISM Services Prices stays elevated, undercutting the oil-driven disinflation narrative.