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Prefer to watch? Here's this weekend's video update.
The Week in Review
The most important earnings week of the year delivered a clean split verdict. Microsoft blew out earnings — Azure grew 43%, annual revenue crossed $100B for the first time, and the stock surged 8.5%. Amazon jumped 15% on AWS's fastest cloud revenue growth in over four years. But Apple shed nearly $475 billion in market cap after issuing a cautious Q4 revenue outlook ($111–113B vs $114.8B expected), and Meta tumbled 9% after missing EPS and guiding Q3 revenue below consensus. The AI trade has been resolved into a clear winner/loser split: cloud infrastructure (Microsoft, Amazon) is working; consumer-facing AI monetization (Apple, Meta) is lagging.
The Fed held rates steady Wednesday in a decision markets called one of the closest calls in years. September rate hike probability remains at 64%. PCE came in at 3.7% annually (in line), core at 3.3%. The jobs market continues to show cracks — June NFP was only 57,000 (vs 110K consensus), with May revised lower. Oil was the week's most dramatic mover: Brent plunged 8.7% Monday to $88.36 on Iran peace talk reports, removing the biggest near-term inflation tail risk. SPX ended the week down just 0.6% — its second straight weekly loss, now 2.6% below the June 2 all-time high.
Weekly Market Scorecard — Week Ending August 1, 2026
| Index | July 25 Close | Aug 1 Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,411.98 | ~7,368 | ~-44 | ~-0.6% ↓ |
| QQQ | ~693 | ~686 | ~-7 | ~-1.0% ↓ |
| IWM | ~277 | ~274 | ~-3 | ~-1.1% ↓ |
VIX: 16.75 — down sharply from 18.58, best weekly improvement in a month. Brent crude: $88.36 after -8.7% Monday plunge. 10-year yield: 4.69%. Q2 GDP advance estimate: +3.0%.
SPX / SPY
SPX closed approximately at 7,368, now 2.6% below its June 2 all-time high of 7,620. Key support: 7,300 (correction floor), 7,250 (50-day MA). Resistance: 7,412 (prior week close), 7,500, 7,620 (ATH).
Volatility (VIX)
VIX at 16.75 — the most constructive reading in three weeks, down from 18.58. A move back below 16 would signal the correction is stabilizing. The FOMC hold and oil's decline helped VIX drop meaningfully. Jobs report Friday August 8 is the next catalyst that could move it sharply in either direction.
QQQ
QQQ near 686, down ~1% on the week. Support: 680, 670. Resistance: 695, 710, 720. Microsoft's blowout partially offset Meta and Apple's weakness. The cloud AI trade (MSFT, AMZN) is separated from the consumer AI trade (AAPL, META) — a cleaner picture than the market had entering the week.
IWM
IWM near 274, down ~1.1% on the week but continuing to outperform Nasdaq on a monthly basis. Russell 2000 at 2,946. Small cap relative strength persists. Support: 2,875, 2,850. Resistance: 2,960, 3,000.
Next Week's Economic Calendar — August 4–8
Monday August 4 — Factory Orders (June); Earnings: Palantir (PLTR) 🔥
Tuesday August 5 — ISM Services PMI (July) 🔥🔥; Trade Balance; Earnings: Uber (UBER) 🔥, Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK)
Wednesday August 6 — Earnings: Walt Disney (DIS) 🔥, Eli Lilly (LLY) 🔥, CVS Health (CVS), DoorDash (DASH)
Thursday August 7 — Initial Jobless Claims; Unit Labor Costs; Earnings: Airbnb (ABNB) 🔥, Datadog (DDOG), The Trade Desk (TTD)
Friday August 8 — Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 🔥🔥🔥; Unemployment Rate; Consumer Credit
Key watch: Friday August 8 is the week's defining moment. July NFP expected at +87,500 — but June came in at only 57,000 (vs 110K expected) with May revised sharply lower. A second consecutive weak print would undercut the Fed's hawkish stance and push September hike odds below 50%, likely triggering a relief rally toward the ATH. A strong print above 120K locks in September and keeps pressure on. ISM Services Tuesday is the secondary watch — manufacturing already showed contraction and a services miss raises recession concern. Palantir Monday and Disney/Lilly Wednesday round out a busy earnings week.
30-Day Market Outlook
Overall Bias: Cautiously constructive. Microsoft and Amazon validated the AI cloud revenue thesis. The correction may be finding its floor — VIX declining, oil retreating, earnings beat rate at 88%. The next catalyst is Friday August 8 jobs report.
Technical levels: SPX support 7,300 / 7,250 (50-day MA). Resistance 7,412 / 7,500 / 7,620 (ATH). VIX 16.75 — most constructive in three weeks. IWM continuing to outperform.
Macro narrative: The AI trade has been clarified — cloud infrastructure is working (MSFT, AMZN); consumer AI monetization is lagging (AAPL, META). Oil retreating on Iran peace talk hopes removes the biggest near-term inflation risk. Two remaining headwinds: September rate hike at 64% probability, and jobs market showing weakness. A strong August 8 NFP print resolves both in the hawkish direction; a miss resolves both in the dovish direction.
Primary risk: Strong July jobs report Friday August 8 — above 120K would cement September rate hike, pressure SPX back toward 7,300. Secondary risk: Iran peace talks collapse, oil re-spikes above $95, inflation expectations re-anchor higher.