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Here’s your requested weekly summary (week ended Friday, September 26, 2025) + forward look and my view.
Market Action For Last Week
Below is the performance comparison for SPY, QQQ, and IWM from Friday one week prior (Sept 19) to Friday Sept 26, 2025:
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
- Close on Friday, Sept 19, 2025: $663.70
- Close on Friday, Sept 26, 2025: $661.82
- Point change: –1.88
- Percent change: –0.28% (a modest decline)
- QQQ (Nasdaq‑100 ETF)
- Close on Friday, Sept 19, 2025: $599.35
- Close on Friday, Sept 26, 2025: $595.97
- Point change: –3.38
- Percent change: –0.56%
- IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)
- Close on Friday, Sept 19, 2025: $242.98
- Close on Friday, Sept 26, 2025: $241.34
- Point change: –1.64
- Percent change: –0.68%
Interpretation / Notes:
- All three major risk‑oriented ETFs declined modestly over the week, with IWM (small caps) experiencing the largest relative drop.
- The declines were small, suggesting that while sentiment may have softened, it was not a strong reversal of the uptrend.
- The relative weakness in QQQ and IWM suggests tech and small/mid caps are more sensitive to any headwinds (inflation, rate expectations, etc.).
Upcoming Major Economic Reports and Potential Market Moving Events
Here’s a sketch of key macro data, central bank or Fed commentary, and other drivers to watch in the upcoming week (Monday through Friday). Times are U.S. Eastern unless otherwise noted; events may shift.
Day
Key Economic / Market Events
Monday
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 am) • 3‑Month Bill Auction (Treasury) • Fed / regional Fed officials potentially speaking (monitor)
Tuesday
• No major headline release flagged in consensus sources currently • Commentary from Fed speakers may influence sentiment
Wednesday
• New Home Sales (10:00 am) per typical Econoday schedule • Other regional Fed surveys / speeches likely • Treasury or debt issuance events to monitor
Thursday
• Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) • Consumer Confidence / Michigan Survey (final) (if scheduled) • Ongoing Fed / central bank commentary
Friday
• Personal Income & PCE Deflator (08:30 am) — this is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge • Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 am) • Markets digest the week’s data into the close and adjust positioning ahead of the weekend
Risks / Watch Points:
- The PCE inflation reading will be especially critical. If inflation comes in hotter than expectations, it could shake rate cut expectations and negatively impact equities.
- Fed speeches or communications that hint at a more hawkish stance would likely trigger downside pressure, especially in growth and momentum names.
- Weakness in consumer sentiment or income data could feed fears about growth slowing, which would undercut risk appetite.
Upcoming Major Stock Earnings Reports (Next Week)
Below are some of the higher‑profile earnings to watch in the week ahead, drawn from earnings calendars (e.g. Kiplinger, Investing.com). The “pre” or “post” designation is based on typical earnings timing patterns, but exact times may update.
Day
Notable Earnings
Monday
• None of the large, headline names are currently scheduled in my sources • Likely quieter from an earnings standpoint
Tuesday
• AutoZone (AZO) — Post‑market • Micron (MU) — Post‑market • Worthington Enterprises (WOR) — Post‑market
Wednesday
• Cintas (CTAS) — Post‑market • Thor Industries (THO) — Post‑market • KB Home (KBH), Steelcase (SCS), Stitch Fix (SFIX) — Post‑market in many cases
Thursday
• Accenture (ACN) — Post‑market • CarMax (KMX) — Post‑market • Jabil (JBL) — Post‑market • BlackBerry (BB), Concentrix (CNXC) — also scheduled
Friday
• No major mega‑cap names are flagged currently for Friday in my sources • Earnings volume tends to drop on Friday; macro releases may dominate
Be aware: smaller names may report outside typical windows, and surprise early/late releases still happen. Always check up‑to‑minute calendars.
View for the Next 30 Days: Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral & Why
I adopt a cautiously neutral-to-moderate bullish posture over the next 30 days. Here’s my reasoning, and actionable focus points:
Bullish / Favoring Risk:
- The trend into this week has not broken decisively; weakness has been contained. The prior uptrend still has structural support.
- Inflation (via PCE) is being watched closely — if it comes in in line or slightly softer than expectations, markets may regain confidence in a rate‑cut path, which could re-energize equities.
- Earnings from certain key names (ex: Micron, AZO) offer opportunities for upside surprises; strong guidance could fuel broader momentum.
- With volatility modest, capital could flow into names that have underperformed or those with higher upside (growth, small caps) if the macro backdrop holds.
Risks / Bearish / What Could Break It:
- If PCE or income data surprise to the upside, the Fed may push back on easing, which would pressure multiple sectors (especially tech).
- Weakness in consumer sentiment or income trends could signal demand erosion, dragging forward estimates.
- Disappointing earnings or guidance across sectors could dampen enthusiasm even if macro is benign.
- External shocks (geopolitics, rates, credit) can derail sentiment quickly in a high valuation environment.
Actionable Focus for 30‑Day Horizon:
- Position more modest sized trades (don’t over-leverage), since volatility could spike.
- Lean into names/sectors that benefit from a benign inflation / rate environment (growth, tech, discretionary), but hedge with some exposure to defensive names.
- Monitor the PCE / income / sentiment prints closely — set trigger levels where you would reduce risk exposure.
- Use earnings events as catalysts — have plans around Micron, AZO, and Accenture results.
- Watch for divergence between large caps and small/mid caps: if IWM begins to break down more, that’s an early danger signal.
In summary: tilting slightly bullish, but with guardrails. The path for upside is narrower — success hinges on macro holding steady (especially inflation) and earnings delivering.